If for some reason you’ve been asleep throughout 2007, Thursday is the first challenge for the 2008 presidential election. Residents of Iowa will come together tomorrow to debate between each other who will be their man or woman on the Democratic and Republican tickets. For those who are not sure what really happens at the Iowa caucus, let me try to give you a quick course.
On the Republican side, the voters gather together at their designated locations in their precinct and listen to the various pitches of the candidates (or their surrogates) and then write down who they believe should be President on their ballot, and then the ballots are totaled. Each precinct reports their totals to the state party. From there, a series of delegates get involve. Precinct delegates go to the County conventions and choose delegates for the District convention. From there, new delegates are chosen and sent to the State convention where they choose delegates for the National convention.
On the Democrat side, it’s much different. Voters gather at their designated locations in their precinct and then split up into different groups; one for each candidate. After forming their little groups, they have a half-hour to mingle with the other groups to pitch their candidate of choice in the hopes of winning some converts. After the 30 minutes are up, they break up into their groups again and then a headcount is conducted. If any of the candidates lack a minimum percentage of total participants (a minimum of 15% in most locations), their group is disbanded and their members are encouraged to go to a “second choice” candidate. After the shuffle, a headcount is done again. The percentage of attendees that the candidates receive at the precinct is translated into delegates, and these delegates are sent to the County conventions, and then choose delegates for the District and State conventions. These two conventions then choose the delegates to the National convention.
Obviously two different styles. Unfortunately, this format typically results in lower voter turnout for a couple of reasons, primarily linked to the fact that you must be present in person for the duration of the event at a scheduled time. As a result, there are no absentee ballots available for those that are out of town on the day of the caucus, or those that have a job that lacks the flexibility to get time off to attend. Additionally, since it isn’t a quick procedure of choosing a name on a ballot and then leaving, those that are merely marginally interested in politics will choose not to attend. This obviously doesn’t take into account weather, individual health, transportation, and so on. So, who participates? The select few voters who are truly passionate about their politics, which results in some heated (and entertaining) exchanges between the groups.
Which leads us to… who wins? As discussed a few weeks ago, I’m not a big fan of political popularity polls, but if you do, currently Huckabee and Romney are tied for the Republicans, and Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are tied of the Democrats. This means that the voter turnout at the caucus is critical. The popularity polls might be tied, but if their individual supporters do not show up to represent their candidate, they can easily lose. My prediction (based upon polls and general gut feeling of voter impressions based solely upon TV interviews):
Republican: Huckabee (1st), Romney (2nd), McCain (3rd)
Democrats: Obama (1st), Clinton (2nd), Edwards (3rd)
Again, popularity polls and TV interviews are all nice, but they don’t mean anything unless the people turn out in the precincts. I don’t expect any of the candidates to drop out of the race after Iowa, since New Hampshire is just a few days away.
Now it’s your turn. Who do you think will win?
Loading ...
Recent Comments