Florida and South Carolina

Good morning everyone. Here is a quick post laying out my projections for Florida and South Carolina.

Today the Democratic primaries for South Carolina begins in what is begin considered a race about “race.” While Barack Obama does his best to minimize the discussion of race as a platform for his campaign, pundits and even some in the Clinton campaign do their best to make it a factor. South Carolina will be the first test with a large black population, and many are projecting Obama to win with a significant percentage due to racial preferences. While that might be true, I think Obama will do well across the racial divide. With that being the case, Obama will come in first with Clinton in a close second. Edwards will be a distant third.

Florida will be the first race where Rudy Giuliani makes a serious run. He has staked much of his campaign on Florida, hoping to catapult him into the competition with John McCain and Mitt Romney. Up until a few weeks ago, Rudy was polling well, but that was before the others started to campaign aggressively in the state. As of this week, Rudy slipped down to third in the polls, requiring him to spend more time and money than he had planned. Huckabee, while doing well with the religious conservatives in the state as well as not having Fred Thompson to compete with, probably will not be in the top three. I do not expect anyone to gain more than 35% of the vote due to how well the four candidates are doing.

Look for McCain to take the panhandle districts, Huckabee securing the North, Rudy taking the East, and Romney doing well in the central districts. The South will define who wins the state, and with the sizable Hispanic and Cuban (specifically) population residing there, the candidate that is pro-Defense while sympathetic to the plight of Cubans and immigration will do the best. I believe at the moment that would be McCain, so he should come in first. In second will be Rudy with the strong NY retired population backing him. Romney will be in third with Huckabee a close fourth.

For the Democrats, the state doesn’t really matter at the moment. With the state being punished for moving ahead of schedule in the primaries (like Michigan), the candidates haven’t been putting too much time or resources into the state… except for Clinton. As in Michigan, she’s taken the opportunity given to secure a state that may or may not play a factor during the convention. As such, look for Clinton to come in with over 45% of the vote, with Obama and Edwards coming in a distant second and third.