Is Kim Jong-Il ill?

Do you remember a few years back when we were discussing a Cuba without Fidel? Try to imagine a North Korea without Kim Jong-Il. The international community fears that the current eccentric leader might be ill or dead, and the government and/or military is putting on a show of force as a way to maintain a sense of normalcy so the government doesn’t collapse. This speculation has been caused by louder rhetoric from the goverment and with Kim Jong-Il missing from this weeks 60th Anniversary of the foundation of the North Korean government.

Kim Jong-Il is known for his bravado, constantly trying to “game the system” with China, Russia, and the US over the past decade, offering to back down from escalating the nations military power (such as nuclear weapon development, espionage, missile tests, ect) in exchange for new technology or a reduction in the embargoes currently in place. He is known for his tastes in expensive luxuries while his population suffers from lack of food and other basic needs. While publicly worshiped by the population, there is an underground system that sends out radio programs informing the residents of the real situation within the country and what is going on in the outside world, countering much of the propaganda from the government.

Who are the likely candidates that will take over if in fact Kim Jong-Il is incapacitated? In Cuba, Raul Castro was the natural choice to replace Fidel. In North Korea, there are two sons who could take over. The eldest son, Kim Jong-Nam, attempted to escape the country by traveling to Japan, so he is probably off the list. His youngest son, Kim Jong-Chul, is a Deputy Chief in the Korean Worker’s Party, though at age of 27 years, his youth probably will result in the honor of being Chairman will be passed to someone else. The Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly (or the head of the legislature) is Kim Yong-Nam, and probably would be the likely successor for Kim Jong-Il. He has served as head of state and a foreign minister, making him one of the most qualified non-military leaders that is in friendly status with the Workers Party. The only drawback is that his is 80 years old, and the fear that the government would have to find another leader within a decade might make him a reluctant choice for Chairman.

Related articles:
The Wall Street Journal – “North Korean Dictator Is Believed Seriously Ill”
Reuters – “North Korea’s Kim unseen at anniversary parade: report”
Yahoo News – “South Korea says Kim is on the road to recovery”