Will Scott Brown win?

Much like the Virginia and New Jersey Governor’s races last year were watched carefully as if they were a referendum on President Obama’s performance to date, the same is true in Massachusetts with the special election to fill the Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy.  The initial impression was that Martha Coakley was going to easily slip in and finish out the rest of Kennedy’s term.  After all, what was the likelihood that a Republican would win in the Massachusetts, let alone Ted Kennedy’s seat?

Scott Brown was elected to the state Senate in 2004 after serving six years in the state House of Representatives.  He won his Senate seat in a special election when the incumbent resigned.  If he were to win tomorrow, this would be the second Senate seat he has won during a special election (interesting talking point). 

Up until last month, he was trailing behind Coakley by double-digit points in the polls, but a series of gaffes by his Democratic candidate and a mismanaged campaign has allowed him to close the gap.  In fact, some late polls this week and weekend show Brown leading by up to 9 points.  But the only poll that counts is the one tomorrow … when the voters make their pick.

I’m not sold on the latest polls showing Brown is in the lead.  He has definitely closed the gap and picked up many independent voters, but will that be enough to overcome the “Kennedy seat” mindset?  Currently, all the House and Senate seats from Massachusetts are held by Democrats, meaning Brown’s victory would be a coup for the Republicans.  This would be the third major upset for the Democrats after sweeping power in 2008 and could foreshadow things to come.

Can he do it?  Maybe, but I’m thinking Coakley carries this by less than 2%.