Source: The Politico – 11/27/2007

Thoughts: As we were discussing the other day, key demographics are going to play a major role in the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. They key segments to watch will be the female vote and the black vote. In a recent poll (again, I don’t put too much weight in polls, but since both results come from the same pollster I’ll use this for discussion purposes), Hillary Clinton is viewed as more favorable than Barack Obama by black voters. Out of 750 voters, 83% viewed Hillary as favorable, while Obama received 74%.

A trump card Obama carries in his pocket that he hopes will win him this key Democratic category is Oprah Winfrey. She has been a great source to pull in campaign funding, and her reputation carries as much weight, if not more, as Hillary’s in the general public. If there is any chance that Barack can secure both the black vote and the female vote, Oprah will deserve a lot of credit. (But don’t expect to see an Obama/Winfrey ‘08 bumper sticker any time soon.)

This is setting up to be a great battle.

Article:  “Clinton tops Obama among African-Americans”
By David Mark and David Paul Kuhn

Six weeks out from the first round of presidential voting, Hillary Rodham Clinton gets better reviews than Barack Obama among African-American voters, a crucial voting bloc in Democratic politics, a new poll shows.

The survey of 750 African-Americans, conducted from Oct. 5 to Nov. 2, and released Tuesday found that the senator from New York was rated favorably by 83 percent of respondents, while 10 percent perceived her negatively.

Obama, meanwhile, garnered favorable ratings from 74 percent of blacks, with 10 percent viewing him negatively.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was rated favorably by 45 percent of respondents, while 19 percent rated him unfavorably, found the poll, sponsored by the AARP.

For Obama, the poll provides one more indication of just how steep a climb remains for his campaign to overtake Clinton.

Obama has mounted possibly the most viable presidential run by a black candidate ever.

(Read the rest of the article here.)

If you notice on the navigation bar, I’ve added the “Helping Hands” section.  Thanks in part to the help of Ed Gruberman, I’m beginning to list a series of agencies that exist to help others that are in need.  Being a good Samaritan is an integral part of the U.S. culture, as evident in our national relief efforts, volunteer military, and individual contributions.  If you know of any agencies that you feel should be added to the list, please let me know.

Source:  eWorldVu

In the last two weeks the race for the Republican Party nomination in election 2008 has seen the first signs of political movement in months. Until November, the race had seen Giuliani as the clear front runner. However, conservative Republicans remain wary of his personal background and positions on social issues. Since Fred Thompson entered the race he has held the number two position in the polls. John McCain has badly trailed the leaders since his campaign imploded over the summer. Mitt Romney continues to have problems with the Republican base because of his Mormon religion. Everyone else in the campaign was under ten percent of the total vote in the public opinion polls and they were marginally viable.

So what has changed in the last couple of weeks? Several developments which may combine to make the actual primary voting in the Republican party interesting to say the least. Mike Huckabee is moving up in the polls and the campaign of Fred Thompson is imploding. Republican Mitt Romney is putting some of his sizable fortune to work buying television spots in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Rudy Giuliani has yet to convince Republican voters that his nomination is inevitable.

Let’s first start with the campaign of Fred Thompson. His campaign speeches have so lacked passion that he is now asking his Iowa audiences for a round of applause for himself. (The YouTube video of Thompson asking for applause is all over the Internet.) Next, when Thompson went on Fox News for an interview, Carl Cameron of Fox News trying to encourage his studio to hurry up so the interview could start, said into his microphone: “The next president of the United States has a schedule to keep.” Standing beside him, a stoic Mr. Thompson interjected: “And so do I.” Thompson’s campaign is imploding with staff defections and a candidate that has no real energy for the campaign trail since he is only campaigning a couple of days per week. Thompson’s poll numbers are dropping and he is down to 16% of the national vote. He is well behind in the early primary voting states. Thompson is representing the conservative vote of the party. Soon this vote will be looking elsewhere for a candidate.

Meanwhile, the opposite is happening in the campaign of Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has moved above 10 % of the vote nationally. The more impressive poll numbers for him have just been released in the first voting state of Iowa. Huckabee has surged into second place and is only 5% behind Mitt Romney for the lead in the Iowa Caucuses.

Mitt Romney still has a sizeable lead in the earliest voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Romney is using his multimillion dollar fortune to buy advertising spots for his campaign in these states. He is hoping three early primary victories will erode Giuliani’s substantial lead nationally.

Rudy Giuliani looks like he will lose the three earliest primary voting states. This is sure to make him look vulnerable and is a risky strategy for his campaign. He needs to hold on to his large nationwide lead despite the early favorable publicity that Romney will enjoy from the media.

These are the dynamics of the Republican Presidential election in mid November 2007. There are contrary indicators everywhere. Giuliani has the nationwide lead in the polls and name recognition but has not “sealed the deal” with primary voters. Romney leads in the earliest primaries, but does not have the support of the base of the party. Thompson’s campaign is a disaster and Mike Huckabee ’s campaign is surging.

With these dynamics in mind, is there a scenario where little known candidate Mike Huckabee could win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? It would take a perfect political storm for him. It’s a real long shot, but it’s possible. Consider the following scenario: Huckabee wins Iowa or comes in a very close second. The media response is that he is the surprise candidate and they give him the favorable publicity. Romney wins New Hampshire and Michigan. Thompson drops out of the race and Giuliani is seen as vulnerable. The voters currently backing Thompson move to Huckabee since he is considered a Christian conservative. Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney battle it out until the convention where anyone could win.

Of course, currently Huckabee does not have the money that Romney and Giuliani have to contest every state. He also would have to withstand a heightened scrutiny of his record while governor of Arkansas. As the details of his record come out, voters may not like what they see. As far as electability, it is interesting to note that the latest Rasmussen poll has Huckabee statistically tied with Hillary Clinton in a general election match up. Another advantage for Huckabee is that this may be a year that the voters want change and a new face in Washington, D.C.

For Huckabee to win the nomination, everything must fall perfectly into place. His campaign needs to continue to surge in Iowa. Romney needs to win some early primaries to stop Giuliani and Thompson needs to withdraw from the race. Then the Thompson vote needs to rally around Huckabee.

This is an election year in which the Republican party nomination is far from settled with the start of primary voting now only six weeks away. Mike Huckabee’s campaign is the only one currently surging with momentum. It may well be that the current temperature of the Republican primary indicates that a storm is brewing. However, it remains to be seen if this is the perfect political storm necessary to propel the candidacy of Mike Huckabee.

Source:  Ed Grumberman – Ti Kwan Leep

Wow… this is a first for me. I’ve never actually seen something like this happen before. How much time will NBC/ABC/CBS/PBS/CNN give to this tonight? I bid… $1! Be ready for riots.

New Orleans, State to Pay $3.4M Judgment

NEW ORLEANS (AP) – The city and the state of Louisiana will pay the bulk of a $3.4 million racial discrimination judgment against the New Orleans District Attorney’s Office, officials announced Tuesday.

The judgment was awarded to 36 employees, 35 white and one Hispanic, who were fired and replaced by black employees shortly after Eddie Jordan took over as the city’s first black district attorney in 2003.

Under the agreement outlined at a conference, the city will pay about one third of the judgment, or more than $1.1 million. The state will pay about $1.6 million, subject to approval by a legislative committee later this year. The District Attorney’s Office, which already has paid $300,000, will pay $300,000 more.

The city and state had been disputing who has responsibility for the office.

Jordan, who was not personally liable in the lawsuit, maintains race played no role in the firings.

He resigned last week amid mounting criticism as high-profile cases fell apart, veteran prosecutors left and the city’s violent crime rate soared. Long before the judgment threatened to bankrupt the office, charges had been dropped and a backlog of criminal cases moved slowly through the courts.

The district attorney’s office, with a $12 million annual budget, had struggled to find a way to pay the judgment. The former employees’ attorneys had frozen some of the office’s accounts and threatened to confiscate its assets.

Source: The Boston Globe – 11/24/2007

Thoughts: Among many of the unique variables in the 2008 Democratic primaries (and possibility the general election itself) is the fact that there is a woman in the race that actually has a chance of winning. Riding on the strength of her name and on her term as a U.S. Senator, Hillary Clinton has stormed on the scene with a money-making machine that is matched by none other than Barack Obama – who happens to have a unique variable of his own.

As it is currently shaping up, the two will have a race between each other to the end through the national primaries. Hillary is hoping that the women-vote will be enough to tip the scales in her favor, while Obama has a strong base with the black-vote. The overlap happens to be the black woman. Who can entice her more? According to the article below, Hillary is doing well with the blue-collar; college educated category of women, while Oprah endorses Obama.

At the moment, Obama is in position to win the battle for this small group. While Hillary’s popularity has increased in this category, Obama’s fresh image, positive attitude, and personal demographic are just too much for Hillary to overcome.

(Note: Yes, I use the term “black” rather than “African American” since the latter term is not correct. This is not meant as a derogatory term, but as a proper category name. As we know, many of the black demographic come through the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe, so the African American label is incorrect. My hope is the future will bring us a time when we won’t have to look at demographics based on skin color, but I don’t see that happening for a few more decades.)

Article:  “Blue-collar women see hopes in Clinton”
By Marcella Bombardieri

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is capitalizing on an overlooked strain of feminism in blue-collar women – nurse’s aides, factory workers, farmers, and single mothers – to help fuel her strength among the Democratic candidates for president.

Even many working-class women who have spent their lives in traditional roles at home and work have been animated by Clinton’s effort to shatter what she has called “the highest, hardest glass ceiling.”

In recent interviews, some of these Clinton supporters say that they have been impressed enough by her advocacy for healthcare and children to jettison their previous views of her as a brash, ambitious lawyer and politician. Some said a female president would do things not just differently, but better.

“We need to have a woman president,” said Honey Davis, 64, of Onawa, Iowa, a longtime nurse’s aide who has diabetes. “A woman would be a little more tender-hearted toward the people, and knowledgeable about family issues.”

In addition, Davis said, because of Clinton’s experience watching the wheels of power grind while she was first lady, the New York senator “will have some ways of getting around the old-boy type of thing.”

Clinton is viewed more favorably in general by women than men. Increased support among college-educated and professional women – her peers – helped fuel a late summer surge that nearly doubled her lead in the national polls.

(Read the rest of the article here.)