This will be the first part of my analysis of President Bush’s final State of the Union address from Monday.  While the news coverage of Ted Kennedy endorsing Barack Obama for President, the Florida Primary being the following day, and by some the lack of interest in the address itself caused the local and national news programs to not discuss the material and proposals in the address, I think it is important for us to see what might be facing Congress and the nation this year and possibly in the future.  With that, let us look at the first part of the address:

After the typical opening pleasantries, the President focuses first on the current state of the economy in the nation.  He reassures the nation that the long-term future of our economy will be good, and we can easily look back to history and see that the long-term graph keeps rising.  But for the short-term, he addresses the rising gas prices and falling home prices (rising mortgage problem) indirectly by touting the agreement he and the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives to provide an economic stimulus package to help out the middle and lower-class citizens.  Many conservatives view this less as an economic stimulus and more as handouts since some people who do not file taxes are eligible for a “rebate.”  Be that as it may, it will be providing aid for those that probably need it the most.  Will they use these funds as it is intended and pay off their debts or decrease their economic burden?  Well, that’s up for the individual citizen to answer.  In the end, however, I do believe that this will provide enough aid for a large enough group that it will benefit them and provide some boost to the economy. 

Continuing on the economy, the President calls once again for Congress to make the tax cuts which were passed 7 years ago permanent.  If this doesn’t happen, the discounted tax rates will rise back to their original level when Bush took office.  To many, this is viewed as a tax increase, even though the Democrats try to spin the language a bit (since most citizens do not want to pay more in taxes).  As he stated, “Try explaining that to 116 million American taxpayers who would see their taxes rise by an average of $1,800.”  Agree that it is a tax increase or not, many Americans are not looking forward to the additional tax burden, especially in a cooling economy.  This is also the problem with many of the “balanced budget” plans that are passed around.  In order to balance the budget during a cool economy, programs either need to be cut by Congress (which will be tough to achieve) to offset declining tax revenues and rising welfare costs.  The other option would be raising taxes to increase revenues.  And while I might not have a degree in economics, it doesn’t take a genius to see that burdening the public with more taxes when times are hard is a smart maneuver.  So while Congress might be controlled by the Democrats at the moment, there is a possibility that they might at least extend the cuts for a few years in order to show that they do care about the middle and lower class, but possibly end the cuts for the highest tax bracket.

I will continue tomorrow with more tomorrow.  For those who haven’t heard yet, John McCain won the Florida primary, and it is rumored that Rudy Giuliani will drop out of the race tomorrow and endorse McCain.  If that turns out to be true, that will give McCain a serious boost going into Super Duper Tuesday next week.  Stay tuned.

The text of the State of the Union address has been released, in case you missed it on television.  I will be providing my analysis of the address and the programs mentioned tomorrow.  So take this moment to read the material over, and we will discuss the items together.

Text:  provided by the New York Times

Good morning everyone. Here is a quick post laying out my projections for Florida and South Carolina.

Today the Democratic primaries for South Carolina begins in what is begin considered a race about “race.” While Barack Obama does his best to minimize the discussion of race as a platform for his campaign, pundits and even some in the Clinton campaign do their best to make it a factor. South Carolina will be the first test with a large black population, and many are projecting Obama to win with a significant percentage due to racial preferences. While that might be true, I think Obama will do well across the racial divide. With that being the case, Obama will come in first with Clinton in a close second. Edwards will be a distant third.

Florida will be the first race where Rudy Giuliani makes a serious run. He has staked much of his campaign on Florida, hoping to catapult him into the competition with John McCain and Mitt Romney. Up until a few weeks ago, Rudy was polling well, but that was before the others started to campaign aggressively in the state. As of this week, Rudy slipped down to third in the polls, requiring him to spend more time and money than he had planned. Huckabee, while doing well with the religious conservatives in the state as well as not having Fred Thompson to compete with, probably will not be in the top three. I do not expect anyone to gain more than 35% of the vote due to how well the four candidates are doing.

Look for McCain to take the panhandle districts, Huckabee securing the North, Rudy taking the East, and Romney doing well in the central districts. The South will define who wins the state, and with the sizable Hispanic and Cuban (specifically) population residing there, the candidate that is pro-Defense while sympathetic to the plight of Cubans and immigration will do the best. I believe at the moment that would be McCain, so he should come in first. In second will be Rudy with the strong NY retired population backing him. Romney will be in third with Huckabee a close fourth.

For the Democrats, the state doesn’t really matter at the moment. With the state being punished for moving ahead of schedule in the primaries (like Michigan), the candidates haven’t been putting too much time or resources into the state… except for Clinton. As in Michigan, she’s taken the opportunity given to secure a state that may or may not play a factor during the convention. As such, look for Clinton to come in with over 45% of the vote, with Obama and Edwards coming in a distant second and third.

Let us take a moment out of our day to remember the man who was the face of one of the greatest movements within our modern history. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. pulled together the cries of the Black community calling for equality for all men and women. Many who answered the call found themselves threatened and assaulted by those who did not share this belief. King was no different. After having his home and his family lives threatened, an assassin’s bullet found him while standing on a second-floor balcony in Memphis on April 4th, 1968. And while his life was extinguished, his message was not. The millions of black and white citizens around the country have carried his torch and have torn down almost all of the walls of prejudice in this nation. And while there are still some on both sides of the racial divide that cannot see past skin color, most in this nation now know we all bleed the same color, and that makes us all brothers and sisters.

Sorry for the recent silence folks. “Real life” temporarily took hold of my free time. I will be posting the results for the past few primaries probably around Monday. As far as my projections for the Michigan primary, I was projecting John McCain to win, with Mitt Romney in a close second, and Mike Huckabee last. As we know, Romney won convincingly over McCain, so once again, I missed calling the winner. Not a good start on my part. As far as for the Democrats, I wasn’t making a prediction since it technically didn’t count in the minds of the DNC.

For South Carolina, it will be a close race between McCain and Huckabee. McCain has the momentum at the moment, though there is a significant Baptist and conservative movement that might tip the scales in favor of Huckabee. I think some of the luster which Huckabee had leading up to Iowa has faded, however, and some of those that were on the fence might not welcome someone who is so open about their faith. As a result, I believe McCain will come in first, followed closely behind by Huckabee. For third, it will be a close race between Romney and a popular Fred Thompson. I don’t believe Thompson has enough popularity pull at the moment, so I say Romney will come in third.

In Nevada, both the Republicans and Democrats are holding their caucus this weekend. With the recent sparing between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Nevada will be a major moral victory for one of them. With some key endorsements by the unions for Obama, as well as the controversy over race laid against the Clinton campaign, I have a hard time seeing Obama losing this state. But as in any case, turnout is key for the caucus. If Bill Richardson had not dropped out, I would have placed him in third for the state. However, that title will be left for John Edwards.

On the Republican side, this will once again be a battle between Romney and McCain. Romney benefits from the Mormon population within the Western states, while McCain will benefit from name recognition and regional appeal since he is a long-standing Senator from neighboring Arizona. When the day is done, I think Romney will have found the edge to steal this state away from McCain, meaning both candidates will have won a state on the same day. Third place will be interesting though. Huckabee is obviously choice, but he is in a close race with Thompson, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This might be Rudy’s first chance to place in the top three before entering Florida, where he is banking much of his campaign’s chances at the moment. With that being the case, I believe that Rudy will make one last push in Nevada, sneaking into the third place slot ahead of Huckabee.

Again, sorry for the recent silence. Have a great weekend, and Remember Martin Luther King, Jr. on Monday.