Nevada and South Carolina
Sorry for the recent silence folks. “Real life” temporarily took hold of my free time. I will be posting the results for the past few primaries probably around Monday. As far as my projections for the Michigan primary, I was projecting John McCain to win, with Mitt Romney in a close second, and Mike Huckabee last. As we know, Romney won convincingly over McCain, so once again, I missed calling the winner. Not a good start on my part. As far as for the Democrats, I wasn’t making a prediction since it technically didn’t count in the minds of the DNC.
For South Carolina, it will be a close race between McCain and Huckabee. McCain has the momentum at the moment, though there is a significant Baptist and conservative movement that might tip the scales in favor of Huckabee. I think some of the luster which Huckabee had leading up to Iowa has faded, however, and some of those that were on the fence might not welcome someone who is so open about their faith. As a result, I believe McCain will come in first, followed closely behind by Huckabee. For third, it will be a close race between Romney and a popular Fred Thompson. I don’t believe Thompson has enough popularity pull at the moment, so I say Romney will come in third.
In Nevada, both the Republicans and Democrats are holding their caucus this weekend. With the recent sparing between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Nevada will be a major moral victory for one of them. With some key endorsements by the unions for Obama, as well as the controversy over race laid against the Clinton campaign, I have a hard time seeing Obama losing this state. But as in any case, turnout is key for the caucus. If Bill Richardson had not dropped out, I would have placed him in third for the state. However, that title will be left for John Edwards.
On the Republican side, this will once again be a battle between Romney and McCain. Romney benefits from the Mormon population within the Western states, while McCain will benefit from name recognition and regional appeal since he is a long-standing Senator from neighboring Arizona. When the day is done, I think Romney will have found the edge to steal this state away from McCain, meaning both candidates will have won a state on the same day. Third place will be interesting though. Huckabee is obviously choice, but he is in a close race with Thompson, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani. This might be Rudy’s first chance to place in the top three before entering Florida, where he is banking much of his campaign’s chances at the moment. With that being the case, I believe that Rudy will make one last push in Nevada, sneaking into the third place slot ahead of Huckabee.
Again, sorry for the recent silence. Have a great weekend, and Remember Martin Luther King, Jr. on Monday.
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