The second of the early states is sometimes called a campaign killer due to the momentum a competitor can gain when combined with Iowa. For the Republican side, it is unlikely that Huckabee will come in first, so Mitt Romney and John McCain are still in the game, no matter who comes in first. On the Democrat side though, both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have cause for concern with Barack Obama riding high in the popularity polls.

Mitt Romney has made this his Hallmark state, investing a lot of time and money in the hopes that being a neighbor to his home state will hopefully bring in a win to start off his trip to victory (other than his win in Wyoming). John McCain has other plans. Being the “comeback kid” of 2008 has plans on winning his first his first state since his 2000 run. Current polling shows Romney slipping in New Hampshire, partly due to the surge of Mike Huckabee and the heated competition he is receiving from McCain. Can he pull out a win in the last minute?

Hillary Clinton came close to tears today while defending her run, while poll after poll comes out showing her national lead slipping away following the surge of Barack Obama. Many expected Hillary to be the favorite in the early states, but her message of Experience has been met with the pressure and desire of moving into the future rather than visiting the past. And fighting a past of his own, John Edwards is hoping that his second place mark in Iowa will help bring in some much needed support to his campaign. If not, it isn’t likely to repeat the limited success he enjoyed in 2004 before joining John Kerry as his Vice President pick.

With that being the case, our pick will mirror the general consensus at the moment, with McCain coming in first, followed by Romney and Huckabee on the Republican side of the race. For the Democrats, we are seeing Obama, Clinton, and Edwards (in that order). The spot to watch will be the top-two Republican positions. Romney is hoping for a late surge in support and that the Independents don’t show up for McCain. We should know by this time tomorrow, so stay tuned.

The “stealth” state came and went, and no one really seemed to notice.  Though the caucuses took longer than I thought, the top-three candidates were Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and Duncan Hunter.  All three of these candidates had visited the state prior to the caucus.  Our projections were Romney, John McCain, and Ron Paul.  Well, at least we picked the first place winner.  The vote and delegate totals are as follows (from CNN):

Republicans

Candidate State Delegates Percentage Pledged Delegates Romney 8 67% 8 Thompson 3 25% 3 Hunter 1 8% 1 Giuliani 0 0% 0 Huckabee 0 0% 0 McCain 0 0% 0 Paul 0 0% 0 Uncommitted 0 0% 0

Color key (by Dave Leip):  
Green – Mitt Romney
Yellow – Fred Thompson
Purple – Duncan Hunter
Blue - John McCain 

Many of you might not be aware, but Wyoming residents are gathering together today to determine who will represent their state at the Republican National Convention.  The media isn’t covering the event since the total number of delegates is so small.  Additionally, the Republican candidates themselves aren’t attending either, as they are focused on New Hampshire.  As a result, the entire state is up for grabs.

To date, only four candidates have visited the state: Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson.  Logic would say that these four individuals would have an advantage over the others merely based on the fact that they bothers to meet with the residents.  When you combine that with the current top four leading candidates (Romney, Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain), we might be able to make a guess as to how the caucus will go.

It is our projection that Mitt Romney will come in first, based upon his national polling strength and his visit to the state.  Second place will go to John McCain due to his national name recognition, prior visit to the state in the 2000 election, and his regional influence.  In third place, Ron Paul might pull the upset, especially if younger voters turn out for the caucus.  He carries a core following with him where ever he goes, and this might just be his best chance for placing high.  We will know this evening if our projection is correct.

As we were projecting in November, Huckabee and Obama won in Iowa on Thursday.  Overall, our projections for the top three in each party weren’t too far off, but again, predicting election returns is an art.  We had Obama coming in first, Clinton second, and Edwards third.  While we have the top three names correct, Edwards was able to steal second from under Clinton.  On the Republican side, We had Huckabee coming in first, Romney in second, and McCain in third.  We had the first two chosen correctly, but Thompson was able edge out McCain by 300 votes.  The final results were (according to CNN):

Democrats

Candidate State Delegates Percentage Pledged Delegates Obama 940 38% 16 Edwards 744 30% 14 Clinton 737 29% 15 Richardson 53 2% 0 Biden 23 1% 0 Uncommitted 3 0% 0 Dodd 1 0% 0 Gravel 0 0% 0 Kucinich 0 0% 0

Color key (by Dave Leip):  
Green – Barack Obama
Blue – John Edwards
Red – Hillary Clinton
Purple – tie (Clinton and Edwards)
Gray – tie (Clinton and Obama) 

Republicans

Candidate Total Votes Percentage Pledged Delegates Huckabee 39,814 34% 17 Romney 29,405 25% 12 Thompson 15,521 13% 3 McCain 15,248 13% 3 Paul 11,598 10% 2 Giuliani 4,013 4% 0 Hunter 515 1% 0

Color key (by Dave Leip):
Orange – Mike Huckabee
Green – Mitt Romney
Yellow – Ron Paul

If for some reason you’ve been asleep throughout 2007, Thursday is the first challenge for the 2008 presidential election. Residents of Iowa will come together tomorrow to debate between each other who will be their man or woman on the Democratic and Republican tickets. For those who are not sure what really happens at the Iowa caucus, let me try to give you a quick course.

On the Republican side, the voters gather together at their designated locations in their precinct and listen to the various pitches of the candidates (or their surrogates) and then write down who they believe should be President on their ballot, and then the ballots are totaled. Each precinct reports their totals to the state party. From there, a series of delegates get involve. Precinct delegates go to the County conventions and choose delegates for the District convention. From there, new delegates are chosen and sent to the State convention where they choose delegates for the National convention.

On the Democrat side, it’s much different. Voters gather at their designated locations in their precinct and then split up into different groups; one for each candidate. After forming their little groups, they have a half-hour to mingle with the other groups to pitch their candidate of choice in the hopes of winning some converts. After the 30 minutes are up, they break up into their groups again and then a headcount is conducted. If any of the candidates lack a minimum percentage of total participants (a minimum of 15% in most locations), their group is disbanded and their members are encouraged to go to a “second choice” candidate. After the shuffle, a headcount is done again. The percentage of attendees that the candidates receive at the precinct is translated into delegates, and these delegates are sent to the County conventions, and then choose delegates for the District and State conventions. These two conventions then choose the delegates to the National convention.

Obviously two different styles. Unfortunately, this format typically results in lower voter turnout for a couple of reasons, primarily linked to the fact that you must be present in person for the duration of the event at a scheduled time. As a result, there are no absentee ballots available for those that are out of town on the day of the caucus, or those that have a job that lacks the flexibility to get time off to attend. Additionally, since it isn’t a quick procedure of choosing a name on a ballot and then leaving, those that are merely marginally interested in politics will choose not to attend. This obviously doesn’t take into account weather, individual health, transportation, and so on. So, who participates? The select few voters who are truly passionate about their politics, which results in some heated (and entertaining) exchanges between the groups.

Which leads us to… who wins? As discussed a few weeks ago, I’m not a big fan of political popularity polls, but if you do, currently Huckabee and Romney are tied for the Republicans, and Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are tied of the Democrats. This means that the voter turnout at the caucus is critical. The popularity polls might be tied, but if their individual supporters do not show up to represent their candidate, they can easily lose. My prediction (based upon polls and general gut feeling of voter impressions based solely upon TV interviews):

Republican: Huckabee (1st), Romney (2nd), McCain (3rd)
Democrats: Obama (1st), Clinton (2nd), Edwards (3rd)

Again, popularity polls and TV interviews are all nice, but they don’t mean anything unless the people turn out in the precincts. I don’t expect any of the candidates to drop out of the race after Iowa, since New Hampshire is just a few days away.

Now it’s your turn. Who do you think will win?