U.S. Common Sense

Just two days ago, we were discussing the change in status of Kosovo as it declared its independence from Serbia. Today, a long chapter comes to an end with Fidel Castro informing the world that he will not accept another term as President of the Council of State of Cuba. While his brother Raul has been governing the nation for the past year and a half after Fidel fell ill, Fidel remained the strong-fisted ruler of the island nation from his hospital bed. So now that the torch has been handed down, what are we to expect?

In the near future… nothing. Raul, while not being the charismatic figure head that loves to dominate island media with his long speeches, he is quite the organizer and manager and will maintain the status quo, and he has a good reason to do so. For starters, you have two generations born and raised under Fidel’s harsh rule, and to suddenly change the government environment without re-educating the public could lead to chaos and revolt, and most likely bloodshed and death. Raul would have no choice but to deploy the military and police to restore peace on the island, and it is no secret that he has reservations over executing those that instigate violence towards the nation (he even executed his own General and friend). And with the unrest and death on the island, many will flee to the US aboard unsafe crafts as they have done three times in the past, many of which will never see dry land again. So what does he (and we) do?

It is known that Raul wouldn’t mind starting up a dialogue with the United States, something that has lacked for most of the 49 rule of Fidel. Most of this communication can be done in back channels and out of the media, allowing the two nations to feel each other out to see what their intentions are. If there is any common ground, they can work on a few small agreements that once completed, they can announce to the public about diplomatic successes, giving Raul some new support for those who would be quick to challenge the government for sweeping reforms. After a slow process of small changes, both internationally and domestically, Raul would be in the best position to ease Cuba into the 21st century, even if it does not turn into a conventional democracy. So what is something that the US can “give” to Raul and Cuba in exchange for some moderate reforms on the island?

Geographically, Cuba is positioned to be hit by tropical storms and hurricanes every year. One of her benefits is her mountain ranges which disrupt the storms as they pass by or cross over the island, knocking the storms down in strength and providing the United States a little bit of a buffer by weakening the storms before they come to us. These storms and their tracking has been one of the few cooperative efforts the two nations have shared over the years, since understanding these storms to be better prepared in the future is in the best interest of the common good. At one point, Fidel proposed that a regional hurricane center should be placed on the island so that it can alert all the Gulf nations as well as be a headquarters for further scientific study of these powerful storms. It might seem like such an insignificant concession by the US, but we should consider establishing this center on the island, and here’s why.

For starters, this center would create some much-needed jobs, especially in the middle and upper pay scale. As a nation comes out of communism and into capitalism, the need for pay disparity becomes apparent. With these new jobs will come close interaction with foreign employees, as the center will also employ citizens from all the Gulf nations who participate in scientific research as well as communications with their home countries to keep them advised of storm warnings during hurricane season. This international interaction will lead to the free-flow of ideology from the outside into Cuba, filling the void of knowledge and correcting misconceptions of how the foreign nations view Cuba and her citizens, as well as their intentions. Lastly, the center will give the opening nation some well-needed respect and attention, making it a welcomed member of the community.

Now, this center will not be the source of a tidal wave of reform across the island, but more as a lone pebble that causes ripples to expand across the pond, slightly affecting the status quo by giving it a gentle nudge. This will help Raul as he continues to make gradual changes in the way the government runs the island. But again, this is only possible if Raul is interested in Reform. Time will tell, but if he is, simple gestures such as a regional hurricane center can go a long way to help change Cuba and bring our population’s closer together.

For some additional information, check out these sites:
World Security Institute - “U.S., Cuba Cooperate to Monitor Hurricanes”
Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom - “US-Cuba Hurricane Summit”

For some additional reading across the web, check out these blogs:
Tennessee Ticket - “Fidel Castro”
The Washington Note - “Fidel Castro Not Returning to the Presidency”
Crooks and Liars - “Fidel Castro Announces Retirement”
Boing Boing - “Fidel Castro, Commander in Chief of Cuba, Resigns”
Blogs of War - “Fidel Castro Resigns”