No, I’m not predicting that Hillary Clinton will cry again before Tuesday’s primaries. However, I am predicting that Tuesday’s primaries will keep the Democratic primary process going well into the Summer, with the potential for a backroom deal being made to avoid a brokered convention. As it stands right now, Barack Obama leads in total current awarded delegates and super-delegates, as well as states won. However, many of the states in February were ones Obama was expected to win. Texas and Ohio, however are more Clinton-friendly – or are they? Let us look into this mess of a party primary process, compliments of the Democrats.

Texas: A surprising twist in the past few weeks, Obama has surged in a state with a strong economy and where national defense is a top priority. These are usually topics which Obama’s message of hope doesn’t carry as well as Clinton’s message of practicality and experience. However, due to a series of gaffs on her part, coupled with Obama’s February momentum, he has been able to close the gap. Even if Clinton were to pull out the victory in the primary on Tuesday, she has to face the duel-election process of Texas that includes a statewide caucus. Why does the state essentially vote twice? Who knows. Since they say everything is big in Texas, I guess their elections are too. In any case, the caucus definitely favors Obama. In the end, Obama will probably walk away with more delegates, but not much to make a significant difference in the total count.

Ohio: Another large state where Obama has caught up with Clinton. Unlike Texas, Ohio has suffered continued job losses over the years, especially in the manufacturing sector. With strong union activity behind both candidates (as is typical with the Democratic party in general), neither candidate carries a significant advantage other the other. You would think that the state would be leaning towards Obama, right? Nope, chalk the current lead up to Clinton. She has been able to keep a lock on Ohio even with the Obama-mania sweeping the nation. And without the confusing duel-voting system that Texas has, she should see some much-needed delegates be placed in her total, while blocking Obama from sweeping Tuesday’s primaries.

Vermont: Unfortunately for Clinton, she will most likely lose this primary to Obama. Fortunately for her, it is a tiny state with only a handful of delegates. With his victory, he might pick-up 3 or 4 more delegates than her, which again negates the victory advantage.

Rhode Island: And just as in Ohio, Clinton’s win in Rhode Island will off-set the victory Obama will have in Vermont. Again, another small state with a handful of delegates.

So what does that give us at the end of the day? Two victories for Obama and two needed victories for Clinton and not much of a delegate advantage to make much of a difference until April. So what does this mean for the Democratic Party?

As things currently look, neither candidate will win enough delegates to secure the nomination, especially since the delegates from Florida nor Michigan (a total of 313 delegates) will not be awarded to either candidate. In addition, John Edwards still holds 26 delegates of his own. This means, both Clinton and Obama will court Edwards for his delegates and his support, while the two candidates will continue to get vocal against each other as this race draws out. In the end, it will come down to a backroom deal between the super-delegates and the candidates in the name of the party, and with one candidate (and his or her supporters) going home in tears.

For some additional reading, check out these sites:
Bloomberg – “Crist Says He’d Support a Repeat of Florida Democratic Primary”
Dallas Morning News – “Ken Molberg: How did Texas Dems get such a convoluted primary system?”
Boston Globe – “Complex primary process proves no hurdle for eager Texas voters”
Bloomberg – “Extended Primary Fight Might Hurt Party, Some Democrats Say”
Tampa Bay Online – “Arrogance Cost Florida Chance To Influence Election”

For some additional reading across the web, check out these blogs:
Hutch Report – “Democrats In Florida Might Vote Again”
NB Politicus – “A Brief History of Delegates and Super Delegates”
DemConWatch – “Florida delegates scrounging for Denver hotels”
BlogHer – “Do Super Delegates Wear Capes and How Do You Count in Huckamath?
Donklephant – “‘The Story’ in Texas and Ohio”

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