U.S. Common Sense

While many Americans use today (Cinco de Mayo) as an excuse to drink, they better get enough rest if they live in Indiana and North Carolina. That’s right, once again, we have another set of Democratic primaries featuring our two favorite contenders Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Who will win this round? Not sure, but I’ll give you predictions (as always).

In Indiana is the second to the last of the states that neighbors Illinois (Obama’s home state), a category which Clinton hasn’t done well in so far. She has lost the races in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin to Obama, leaving Indiana and Kentucky open for a victory. Currently, it looks like Clinton has a slight edge on Obama, but she needs to make in-roads in NW Indiana that is basically a suburb of Chicago. If she can make a dent there, then she should win the state by a good 5-7%.

In North Carolina, Obama is clearly leading, so the odds of Clinton walking away with a win will require a huge turnout in her favor. So, it’s not a matter for her to “win” the state, but suppress the victory by Obama. If Obama cannot walk away with at least a 9% margin of victory, then Clinton can continue with her momentum campaign on the stump.

So, we’re looking like a win for both candidates tomorrow, which means the primary battle will continue throughout the month and into June. Time for another batch of popcorn folks.