Election projection as of August 21st
NOTE: This article has been revised as of 10:12pm on 8/22/2008 due to an analytical error.
Based on current polls, there isn’t much change in 2008 from 2004. The three states that change are Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico; all three switching in favor for Obama. Now, if you thought Florida was bad in the 2000 elections, you haven’t seen anything yet. You see, in the map above, the electoral vote counts for both Obama and McCain is 269, or in other words, it is a tie. That’s right, folks – a tie.
In the case of a tie (which means no one reached 270 electoral votes), the election moves to Congress where the House of Representatives picks the President while the Senate picks the Vice President. Each state will be given one vote, so the state delegations would have to come to some sort of conclusion as to how the state will cast their vote. If the House does not choose a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice President will serve as acting President until a President is chosen by the House.
Just for a trial, let’s look at how the states would vote for President and Vice President based upon the party majority of their Representatives and Senators. (See individual state data at the end of the article.)
With the way the House currently stands, Obama would win 27 states, McCain would win 21, and 2 states are tied. So, you would have President Obama accepting the oath of office assuming the states voted among the majority of the Representatives. (NOTE: The changes to the article follows.) The Vice President race, however, might result in a Republican taking the oath due to the equal partisan split in the Senate. There are 49 Republican Senators and 49 Democratic Senators. With 2 Independent Senators (one leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican), it would be more likely that a Vice President (rather than President) not being chosen on Inauguration day.
Alabama:
House – 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Alaska:
House – 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Arizona:
House – 4 Republicans, 4 Democrats (tie)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Arkansas:
House – 1 Republican, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
California:
House – 19 Republicans, 34 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Colorado:
House – 3 Republicans, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Connecticut:
House – 1 Republican, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Democrat, 1 Independent
Delaware:
House – 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Florida:
House – 16 Republicans, 9 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Georgia:
House – 7 Republicans, 6 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Hawaii:
House – 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Idaho:
House – 2 Republicans (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Illinois:
House – 8 Republicans, 11 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Indiana:
House – 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Iowa:
House – 2 Republicans, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Kansas:
House – 2 Republicans, 2 Democrats (tie)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Kentucky:
House – 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Louisiana:
House – 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Maine:
House – 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Maryland:
House – 2 Republicans, 6 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Massachusetts:
House – 10 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Michigan:
House – 9 Republicans, 6 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Minnesota:
House – 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Mississippi:
House – 1 Republican, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Missouri:
House – 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Montana:
House – 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Nebraska:
House – 3 Republicans (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Nevada:
House – 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
New Hampshire:
House – 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Republicans
New Jersey:
House – 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
New Mexico:
House – 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
New York:
House – 6 Republicans, 23 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
North Carolina:
House – 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Republicans
North Dakota:
House – 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Ohio:
House – 11 Republicans, 6 Democrats, 1 vacant (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Oklahoma:
House – 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Oregon:
House – 1 Republican, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Pennsylvania:
House – 8 Republicans, 11 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Rhode Island:
House – 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
South Carolina:
House – 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
South Dakota:
House – 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Tennessee:
House – 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Texas:
House – 19 Republicans, 13 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Utah:
House – 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
Vermont:
House – 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate – 1 Democrat, 1 Independent
Virginia:
House – 8 Republicans, 3 Democrats (McCain)
Senate – 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Washington:
House – 3 Republicans, 6 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
West Virginia:
House – 1 Republican, 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Wisconsin:
House – 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate – 2 Democrats
Wyoming:
House – 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate – 2 Republicans
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