U.S. Common Sense

 NOTE:  This article has been revised as of 10:12pm on 8/22/2008 due to an analytical error.

Based on current polls, there isn’t much change in 2008 from 2004.  The three states that change are Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico; all three switching in favor for Obama.  Now, if you thought Florida was bad in the 2000 elections, you haven’t seen anything yet.  You see, in the map above, the electoral vote counts for both Obama and McCain is 269, or in other words, it is a tie.  That’s right, folks - a tie.

In the case of a tie (which means no one reached 270 electoral votes), the election moves to Congress where the House of Representatives picks the President while the Senate picks the Vice President.   Each state will be given one vote, so the state delegations would have to come to some sort of conclusion as to how the state will cast their vote.  If the House does not choose a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice President will serve as acting President until a President is chosen by the House.

Just for a trial, let’s look at how the states would vote for President and Vice President based upon the party majority of their Representatives and Senators.  (See individual state data at the end of the article.)

With the way the House currently stands, Obama would win 27 states, McCain would win 21, and 2 states are tied.  So, you would have President Obama accepting the oath of office assuming the states voted among the majority of the Representatives.  (NOTE:  The changes to the article follows.)  The Vice President race, however, might result in a Republican taking the oath due to the equal partisan split in the Senate.  There are 49 Republican Senators and 49 Democratic Senators.  With 2 Independent Senators (one leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican), it would be more likely that a Vice President (rather than President) not being chosen on Inauguration day.

Alabama:
House - 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Alaska:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Arizona:
House - 4 Republicans, 4 Democrats (tie)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Arkansas:
House - 1 Republican, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

California:
House - 19 Republicans, 34 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Colorado:
House - 3 Republicans, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Connecticut:
House - 1 Republican, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Democrat, 1 Independent

Delaware:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Florida:
House - 16 Republicans, 9 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Georgia:
House - 7 Republicans, 6 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Hawaii:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Idaho:
House - 2 Republicans (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Illinois:
House - 8 Republicans, 11 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Indiana:
House - 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Iowa:
House - 2 Republicans, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Kansas:
House - 2 Republicans, 2 Democrats (tie)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Kentucky:
House - 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Louisiana:
House - 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Maine:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Maryland:
House - 2 Republicans, 6 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Massachusetts:
House - 10 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Michigan:
House - 9 Republicans, 6 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Minnesota:
House - 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Mississippi:
House - 1 Republican, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Missouri:
House - 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Montana:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Nebraska:
House - 3 Republicans (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Nevada:
House - 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

New Hampshire:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

New Jersey:
House - 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

New Mexico:
House - 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

New York:
House - 6 Republicans, 23 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

North Carolina:
House - 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

North Dakota:
House - 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Ohio:
House - 11 Republicans, 6 Democrats, 1 vacant (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Oklahoma:
House - 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Oregon:
House - 1 Republican, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Pennsylvania:
House - 8 Republicans, 11 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Rhode Island:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

South Carolina:
House - 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

South Dakota:
House - 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Tennessee:
House - 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Texas:
House - 19 Republicans, 13 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Utah:
House - 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Vermont:
House - 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate - 1 Democrat, 1 Independent

Virginia:
House - 8 Republicans, 3 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Washington:
House - 3 Republicans, 6 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

West Virginia:
House - 1 Republican, 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Wisconsin:
House - 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Wyoming:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans