One week to go

Barring a repeat of 2000, in one weeks time we will wake up with a new President-elect to be sworn in office in January 2009. In many states, early voting is already underway, with some states experiencing record turn out. The rest of the voters will go to the polls on Tuesday to cast their vote for one of many presidential candidates, with the John McCain and Barack Obama receiving the majority of votes. Who will win is the $700+ Billion question.

Before the financial market imploded and the credit began to freeze, it was a tight race between McCain and Obama. Both candidates were riding the momentum they received from their conventions and were traveling around the country explaining why the public should vote for them. Then, the financial sector started to crumble, causing McCain to “suspend” his campaign and head back to Washington while Obama fumbled with his response to the growing crisis. Unable to get a bill up for a vote, but comfortable enough that it was on the right path, McCain flew in at the last moment for the first Presidential debate. Two debates and a rollercoaster ride on the stock markets later, McCain’s position in the polls slipped greatly. The drop in the polls has caused many states that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 to shift towards Obama over the past few weeks, including states like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

Over the past few days, we’ve seen the national polls begin to level out and in some cases draw closer together. This gives the impression that McCain might be back in the race, though he has an uphill battle. He is still behind in a few key “Bush states,” and the gains he made in Michigan and Pennsylvania have been lost and probably out of reach. The positive movement he is making in the national polls trickle down to the key states, there is a chance he can still win. However, I think there are too many variables at play against him. That being said, my projection for what we will see this time next week Barack Obama receiving 278 electoral votes and a call from John McCain congratulating him on a hard fought campaign.

Barack Obama (Blue):  278 electoral votes
John McCain (Red):  260 electoral votes

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