The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that the next President of the United States will only serve one term. No, I’m not talking about conspiracy theories where McCain succumbs to health issues or Obama falls victim to an assassin’s bullet. I’m talking about the sheer number of tough issues facing the next President that he or she will have to address through their four years in office.
The correct decisions will most likely be unpopular, while the wrong decisions will just make the situations worse, so the candidate enters office with the cards stacked against them. In addition, the next President will be running against the clock. Realistically, the President will have two years to push through their decisions before the public goes to the polls to vote for their Senators or Representatives, and following that election begins the next campaign run for the presidential elections. The issues that will spell the end of their re-election runs are the economy, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, energy reform, and social security reform.
The economy: It does not look like our economic situation, both domestically and globally, will recover within the next year. Financial institutions have fractured foundations and the credit system has come to a near halt. We are on the verge of spending a trillion dollars to keep these systems solvent to stem off the forces of a global recession and possibly a depression. Whoever is elected will not be able to supply much of what they’ve proposed during the primaries and the general election campaign. In addition, the odds are that whatever actions are made won’t show significant impacts on the economy for 2 to 3 years once enacted, meaning that much of their term will be hampered by poor economic quarterly news.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan: Short wars are popular while long wars are not. After seven years in Afghanistan and five years in Iraq, the public is ready for an end. Unfortunately, whomever wins will have to address these two issues and decide if it is in our nations long-term interest to maintain the current troop levels, increase troop levels, or exit the theatres all together.
Energy reform: We import AND export a lot of oil, much of it unnecessarily when you consider our technology and access to domestic resources. There are regions in our nation with adequate year-round sustained winds that would make wind turbines practical. We have tons of easily accessible oil and natural gas that goes untouched. The government is spending the most ever on hydrogen research and development. Nuclear power development continues to be stymied while other nations flourish on its benefits. U.S. Automotive companies continue to get by on artificially low fuel standards when foreign manufacturers produce cars far more efficient. The next President will have to take on the unions and other special interest groups that hinder our growth.
Social Security reform: As we discussed two years ago, the current system is broken and needs to be fixed. The only way to fix it is to go back and make it the insurance program it was meant to be. Make the system cover only those in need. This is often refereed to as one of the “third rails” in politics, but it is one that has to be addressed. Whomever wins will have to lead Congress into doing what they don’t want to do on their own.
In short, the President will make so many necessary but unpopular decisions that it will be difficult for them to maintain a party and independent voter base large enough to survive a serious challenger. Ideally, such resolve would earn the President credit since he or she will be doing the role of the position; doing what is best for the union. I would like to be proven wrong, but I don’t see it happening.