The Mexican government collapses

That could be the headlines in the near future according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM). In the report, JFCOM focuses on the instability within Mexico and Pakistan, placing them on their watch list. With Mexico, drug violence and corruption dominates most of the nation, with the drug lords issuing threats to Mexican police saying, “Join us or die.” So, what would happen if the government collapses, and how should the US react?

Currently, the drug cartels are targeting the commanders and other heads of the local police forces, taking out the leadership of the first line of defense within the community. The police forces are trying to recruit as many new members as possible, but if the citizens start sinking into a sense of fear for personal safety (similar to some cities in Iraq during the insurgency), the streets would become property of the drug cartels. Those police that remain will probably submit to the drug cartels and become hired help.

As a response, the Mexican military would be forced from an offensive to a recapture/hold mission. With seven organized drug cartels operating in all areas of the nation, the military would be spread too thin. With only 193,000 military forces on hand, they would not be able to police and defend 32 states if the cartels organized in a single force. What remains is a nation with a sovereign government in name only, as they have officially lost control of their territory and their borders. Chiapas and Tabasco become gaping holes within the national security structure, allowing for easy access for cartel supplies and supporters to pour within the nation.

The US has one immediate response: defend her borders. The National Guard forces from all of the southern Border States and probably some of the other Midwestern states, will be activated and deployed to the border to stop the anticipated flow of refugees into our country. With 17 Million Mexicans living in the six states bordering the US, the US Border Patrol would be instantly overrun without the additional support.

The next step by the US would be to provide military support. Our nation would not be able to operate as freely if our nation bordered a country that lacked internal control and international cooperation. Depending on our situation in the Middle East, we may have to redeploy forces, call for volunteers, or even institute a draft. Policing a state of roughly 25 Million people in Iraq is a relatively simple task compared to 112 Million people in a nation four times the size. The US has roughly 3 Million active duty and reserve military personnel that could be called up to assist the Mexican forces.

Imagine this: What if the nation completely collapses, fracturing into either 32 smaller independent states or a handful of federations. Would the US consider accepting some of the states/federations into our Union? Some of the northern Mexican states have established infrastructure and businesses, making them less of a financial burden than some of the other states if we did accept them. But how many of the Mexican states should we accept? If the Mexican government collapsed due to the drug cartels, would the US be able to remove the cartels from our new territory?

There are a lot of questions, but in a worst case scenario, all angles need to be addressed. To answer some of the questions, this would be my view of how the US would respond. Taking a logical approach, the US forces would work their way south, starting with the six Border States. Once we have stabilized those states, we would proceed south to the next five states. This would give us control over 25.3 Million people and roughly half of the total land area of Mexico. If the Mexican government has collapsed by this point, the US would be able to begin to form and train a Mexican national force to supplement the US forces with policing these nine states, allowing our fighting forces to continue their push south.

Once the nation is under US control, the next phase will be to reestablish state police and guard forces to take over national security while the national government is reconstituted. During this period, the US would be in control, more in the way we managed the Philippines rather than Iraq. With the new government in full control of the administrative duties of the nation, and the military and police forces brought back up to 100% ready status, the US would turn over control and return home. The process should take five to ten years, depending on the level of organization the drug cartels have within Mexico and how much damage was done to the infrastructure.

This is not a scenario any of us would like to see. The US will be distracted for at least a decade dealing with just Mexico, possibly leading to us retreating from key parts of the world. Our businesses would evolve into a more nationally-focus economy than a global economy to ensure our forces have the right equipment, enough food, and construction supplies to quickly respond to our logistical needs within the northern nine Mexican states during the occupation. This retreat, both politically and economically, would put us behind in the world once the hemisphere returns to a state of calm. My hope is that this would be a blessing in disguise, giving our companies a desire to be more competitive and innovative in the new international marketplace.

Related articles:
El Paso Times – “U.S. military report warns ‘sudden collapse’ of Mexico is possible”
FOX News – “Military Report: Mexico, Pakistan at Risk of ‘Rapid and Sudden Collapse’”
The Oil Drum – “Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?”
Newser – “Drug Lords to Mexican Cops: Join Us or Die”
Congressional Research Service – “Mexico’s Drug Cartels” (pdf format)

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