In listening to the news today, it seems odd that people seem surprised that Senator Arlen Specter switched parties from Republican to Democrat. He has been dodging rumors and claims that he was switching parties ever since the election. In fact, one of the articles on the March 13th edition of the Political Blog Weekly had an article entitled “Will Specter Go Democrat?” It just seems odd.

A current argument for his decision to switch parties is because he is trailing Pat Toomey in the Republican primary by 21% (Specter beat Toomey by 2% in the 2004 primary). If Specter wins the Democratic primary and faces Toomey in 2010, I wonder who would win. Out of curiosity, I decided to see how well Specter has performed in past elections in Pennsylvania to get an idea (data from Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections):

- Won by 10% against Joseph Hoeffel in 2004
- Won by 27% against Bill Lloyd in 1998
- Won by 3% against Lynn Yeakel in 1992
- Won by 14% against Bob Edgar in 1986
- Won by 2% against Pete Flaherty in 1980

Other than the fact that Specter won in each of those elections, it would be hard to gauge how well/poor he will do against Toomey. It is my thought that, if 2010 is a Republican year as it was in 1994, Toomey has a chance to win. I base this on a strong Republican turn out in 2010 with a decreased Democrat turn out (compared to 2008). Specter has won Pennsylvania with Democratic support in the past elections, but his shunning of the Republican party might fire up the base enough for Toomey and tip the election in his favor. We will have to revisit this match up next year.

I can only surmise that Specter changed to the Democratic Party out of personal gain. If he truly found himself at odds over the current Republican philosophy, he should have switched to an Independent like Jim Jeffords did in 2001 or Joseph Lieberman did in 2006. However, by switching to the ideological opposite party does not reflect an issue over philosophy but rather political desperation. He needs to secure the Democratic Party endorsement in order to win in 2010. Unfortunately for Specter, this “flip flop” is instant ammunition for Toomey to use against him during the campaign.

Related articles:
Los Angeles Times – “Specter condemned Jim Jeffords’ party switch in 2001″
The New York Times – “We Didn’t Have to Lose Arlen Specter”
ABC News – “Biden Has Been Lobbying Specter to Switch Parties – for Five Years”
The Dallas Morning News – “Cornyn miffed, Hutchinson ‘surprised’ at Specter switch”

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