While I have covered a few aspects of the Virginia Governors race a few times this year, I haven’t discussed the potential election outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey this year, and what impact they might have (if any) on the national debate. Many of the pundits are saying this election is a referendum on President Obama’s performance in office, and while that might have some truth to it, we must remember that these are state races for state leadership.

In Virginia, we are watching a rematch between Bob McDonnell (Republican) and Creigh Deeds (Democrat). In 2005, these two candidates ran against each other for the position of Attorney General, with McDonnell winning the election by 360 votes, or by just 0.02%. When Deeds won the nomination for the Democratic Party earlier in 2009, it was assumed that the wave of Democratic support in Virginia when it voted for Obama in 2008 would catapult Deeds to victory in 2009. In 2009, however, it is a whole new race.

McDonnell already had an effective image campaign and message in place while Deeds was still fighting against Moran and McAuliffe for the Democratic nomination, putting Deeds behind in the media. Then, McDonnell’s college thesis rose to the surface and dominated the public debate, with Deeds riding a wave of support and capitalizing on the controversy. It looked like that Deeds was once again in the drivers seat and become the third Democratic candidate to be elected as Governor.

In New Jersey, there is a different type of battle brewing. Embattled Governor Jon Corzine (Democrat) is competing against Christopher Christie (Republican) and Christopher Daggett (Independent) for the states’ top position. In 2005, Corzine was elected to Governor with 54% of the vote, taking over for Richard Codey (Democrat) – who was acting governor following the resignation of James McGreevey (Democrat) in 2004. Looking to repair the image of Democratic Party, Corzine sought out to stem the tax rates and corruption in the state, only to be caught up in scandal after scandal. This created an environment favorable to the competition.

Chris Christie won the Republican nomination by 55% by running on his experience and success as the U.S. Attorney in New Jersey. He joined a campaign race that already included Independent Chris Daggett. Daggett, a partner at an investment firm, was seen as a non-player in the race with Christie taking an early lead in the race over the summer. As the race heated up in September with Christie and Corzine taking sharper tones towards each other, and questions over accusations of abuse of power towards Democrats by Christie as a U.S. Attorney, Christie’s lead in the polls started to slip with Daggett being the beneficiary. Some of those gains by Daggett has slipped, however, following the exposure of calls by the Democratic party encouraging Republican voters to vote for Daggett, and renewed questions on if Daggett is actually a Democratic plant in the race.

I think the “easy” election to call at the moment will be the race in Virginia. Obama won in 2008 on a strong Democratic showing, especially with a strong showing by black voters. With projections of black turnout at the polls to decrease by 10-15%, and with McDonnell gaining more black supporters in the polls compared to John McCain a year earlier, the odds are stacked up against Deeds on Tuesday. Many polls over the past week show McDonnell with at least a 10% lead.

New Jersey is a harder race to call. To me, it is still surprising that Corzine has maintained a minimum of 40% support throughout much of the race according to the polls. Though Christie topped out around 53% in July, the increasing popularity of Daggett threatens to cost Christie the win. Polls over the weekend show Daggett bringing in 10% of the vote, turning the race between Christie and Corzine into a dead heat. If I were a betting man, I would say that Christie wins the election following a recount, especially since the weather will be favorable to voters. If the weather was bad, I would feel more confident about picking Christie to win.

So what does a double-victory by the Republicans on Tuesday mean? Really, not too much on the national level other than creating a 50/50 split in state control by Party. The greatest impact will be the increase in Republican campaign donations as the party seeks a positive sign for hope in the mid-term elections next year. Sure pundits will question the effectiveness of Obama’s Administration as well as the publics’ opinion of his policies to date, but as the races tomorrow show, all politics are local.

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