Much like the Virginia and New Jersey Governor’s races last year were watched carefully as if they were a referendum on President Obama’s performance to date, the same is true in Massachusetts with the special election to fill the Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy.  The initial impression was that Martha Coakley was going to easily slip in and finish out the rest of Kennedy’s term.  After all, what was the likelihood that a Republican would win in the Massachusetts, let alone Ted Kennedy’s seat?

Scott Brown was elected to the state Senate in 2004 after serving six years in the state House of Representatives.  He won his Senate seat in a special election when the incumbent resigned.  If he were to win tomorrow, this would be the second Senate seat he has won during a special election (interesting talking point). 

Up until last month, he was trailing behind Coakley by double-digit points in the polls, but a series of gaffes by his Democratic candidate and a mismanaged campaign has allowed him to close the gap.  In fact, some late polls this week and weekend show Brown leading by up to 9 points.  But the only poll that counts is the one tomorrow … when the voters make their pick.

I’m not sold on the latest polls showing Brown is in the lead.  He has definitely closed the gap and picked up many independent voters, but will that be enough to overcome the “Kennedy seat” mindset?  Currently, all the House and Senate seats from Massachusetts are held by Democrats, meaning Brown’s victory would be a coup for the Republicans.  This would be the third major upset for the Democrats after sweeping power in 2008 and could foreshadow things to come.

Can he do it?  Maybe, but I’m thinking Coakley carries this by less than 2%.

Just some quick thoughts for this evening.

Please keep the people in Haiti in your thoughts tonight.  Reports indicate that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck just outside of the nations capital.  As you know, the country has been suffering for years due to a poor economy, high unemployment, and needing constant international aid.  I haven’t heard any reports on injuries and deaths, but you can imagine the numbers are high.  After all, the quake that created so much damage in California in 1989 was also a 7.0 Mag and killed over 60 people.  When you consider that California code requires earthquake-resistant construction, that 60+ death figure could have been much higher … which I fear for Haiti.  I’m certain that the Red Cross will have a special donation link on their website soon if you wish to donate.

On a semi-lighter note, I decided to tune in to the O’Reilly Factor on FOX News to see how Sarah Palin did on her first night as a political commentator.  She spoke in a manner as if she was still campaigning rather than discussing issues, but since much of the questions were about her, it made sense.  I don’t think I learned a lot from her 10 minutes on the program, but she didn’t do too bad on her first night.  If anyone else saw it, let me know what you thought.  I’m still standing by my thought that she’s going to settle in at the network and not run for office in 2012.

In what can be viewed as an unsurprising move by the cable news mega giant, FOX News has inked a multi year deal with 2008 Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin. Palin, who is both a media darling and punching bag, will bring the news network an energized viewership that may or may not already be watching their program. Her role will be as a political commentator as well as a host on special programs.

This will be the third potential 2012 Presidential candidate to be on the FOX News payroll, joining Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich. If all three of them were to enter the race, how would that impact the media company as well as the media itself? Mike Huckabee hosts a weekly show, so the company will have to create a new program to fill that void. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin would hold only talking rolls, so there wouldn’t be an impact on the cable company’s line-up. However, how will the three handle the separation between commentating and campaigning if they are still employed with the news channel prior to announcing their campaign for office?

I don’t think Huckabee will make a run for office. He has a comfortable job with a wide audience where he can share his views on the issues without the constant battle from his detractors. Newt Gingrich keeps toying with supporters over his possible run, though he runs his own multi-partisan think-tank “American Solutions” where he can influence policy without holding elected office. Sarah Palin is unlikely to win the Republican nomination for office, though she might stage a third-party run with support of the Conservative and Tea Parties. Her name recognition and base would be enough to get her into the debates, but I don’t think she would pull enough votes from the Republican candidate to beat out Obama (assuming he runs for re-election) in a general election.

In the end, I think she might be better off carving out a show of her own on FOX News like Mike Huckabee and enjoy the stable paycheck and audience.  It will be interesting to see how her first few appearances as a commentator goes, that’s for sure.

It’s a new year, but we’re still talking about the same old subjects. Today’s topic takes us back to the Health Care Reform legislation. If you recall, I left the conversation with the Senate debating on the language of their bill a week before they were set to vote. The Senate bill has passed, and it is now time for the two houses of Congress to come together and merge their bills.

If we continue to look back, during the presidential campaign, candidate Barack Obama repeated made the point that the Health Care Reform discussion and deliberations would be televised by C-SPAN. He made this point because he believes the general public (or at least those who have access to C-SPAN) should be able to watch the process and examine the politicians to see if they were in the pocket for the lobbyists and health care companies. Of course, as President he can not force the Congress to televise their deliberations, but an issue that significantly impact everyone and the national debt should be transparent to the public.

Going back even further, we recall the night that the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives. Nancy Pelosi stated that the Democrats “intend most … open … congress in history.” This came on the heals of a campaign where the Democrats national message hammered the Republicans over secrecy on legislation and meetings with corporate representatives and lobbyists.

So what is the discussion in the news today? Brian Lamb, the CEO of C-SPAN, wrote a letter to Congressional Democratic leaders asking them for permission to put cameras in the room where negotiations between the two Houses would be held. Unfortunately for C-SPAN, Pelosi and Harry Reid are planning to do what is being called “ping pong” – a process where the two sides will submit recommendations of revisions to each other without convening a formal session for deliberations. Noting that this lack of openness and transparency would be a hot-topic issue, Pelosi came out and cut the debate off early by stating “there has never been a more open process for any legislation.”

So what should the general public think of this process? Is this hypocrisy? Politics as usual? Whatever you might call it, I find it silly. Silly, because the only reason why Pelosi and Reid are taking this route is because their hallmark legislation has become such a thorny issue that they can’t risk additional public debate without risking further political damage. As it is, public support for the legislation continues to slip, and both moderate and far-left Democrats are complaining about the extent and scope of the proposed reform. Having this hanging around their neck leading into the election year is something the two leaders want to keep out of the news and signed quickly.

Related articles:
The Hill – “Pelosi tells C-SPAN: ‘There never been a more open process’”
The Washington Times – “EDITORIAL: Hiding health bills behind closed doors”
Real Clear Politics – “Obama’s C-Span Problem”
U.S. News & World Report – “Democratic Leaders Plan Secret Health Reform Deliberations”
FOX News – “C-SPAN Challenges Congress to Open Health Care Talks to TV Coverage”
CNN – “Boehner backs move to open health care talks to media”