Hillary Clinton - This is probably the largest of the “two-headed” issue for the Obama Campaign this week. Hillary Clinton was Obama’s main challenger during the Primary process, staying match-step with him with states won and delegates awarded for five months of the campaign. Locking up over 18 Million votes across the country, she carries a lot of weight in this year’s election, and due to that influence comes committed supporters. A significant proportion of her supporters are not happy, feeling that they had the election stolen from Hillary with the states of Florida and Michigan not being counted in the delegate totals, small states that Obama carried providing more delegates than some of the larger states that Hillary carried, and the sense that gender was sidelined by race. However, the largest swipe was the fact that Hillary was not considered for the Vice Presidential position by Obama, instead choosing Joe Biden for the job.

Hillary’s delegates - In addition to the protestors outside the Convention, Obama (and Hillary) have to worry about delegates on the Convention floor. In order to maintain stability and unity, “whip teams” are deployed among the delegates to ensure no protests are started to distract from the message of the person on the stage. Additionally, a roll call vote will be done during the Convention as an agreement with Party members to ensure that Hillary receives fair treatment, hoping to pacify the Hillary supporters. Some states require delegates to vote in the manner that they were selected, meaning that some are required to vote for Hillary even though she has released her delegates to Obama. Additionally, some delegates and superdelegates have stated publicly that they will vote for Hillary regardless. A high vote total for Hillary might show that there is not unity within the party yet, possibly weakening Obama’s message for the week.

Bill Clinton - The last two-term Democratic President has not been a strong supporter of Obama following the end of the Primary process. He has felt that he was targeted by the Obama camp, accused the camp of playing the race card against the Hillary campaign and himself, and ignored by the Obama camp leading into the Convention this week. When he was informed of his scheduled night and time to make a presentation at the Convention, he was given a topic (Securing America’s Future) to speak on. Unfortunately, this is not the topic that he wanted to speak on, referencing his strong record on the economy and Democratic Party unity and ideals. This has reinforced his reason for not using his political power to help secure a victory for Obama leading into November.

John Edwards - What can only be seen as a sigh of relief that the news didn’t break a week or two later, the Democratic Party is suffering from the shocking announcement that the 2004 Vice Presidential nominee and the third-place delegate winner of the 2008 primary committed adultery while on the campaign trail. What makes it worse is the fact that his wife is suffering from cancer. With rumors that he might have also fathered a child in this relationship, the Democratic Party had to scramble to marginalize Edwards in order to not lose too much of the ‘family values’ influence they have gained over the past two years following some key Republican scandals. Once courted by both Hillary and Obama, Edwards was the focus of the media for a month while the two leading candidates held key private meetings with the one-term Senator with win his support and the support of his followers. This also hurt the chance of the Party surrogates of using McCain’s first marriage against him without Edwards popping up in the discussion. Combine this with the strong core support McCain received following his public statement during the Saddleback forum just a few weeks ago, taking full blame for the failure of his first marriage, the “chip” has all but been removed from the table.

Joe Biden - While probably the safest pick Obama could make to fill in some key gaping holes in his campaign platform, Biden does not come without risks. For starters, Obama won a lot of key support during the Primaries on the platform that he had the foresight to oppose the land battle with Iraq in 2003. Biden, one of his primary challengers, not only voted for the war but also strongly defended the reason to do so back in 2002. Another point of contention with one of Obama’s key platform points is the need of change from politics as usual. Biden has been a Senator for 35 years, or almost the entire life of Obama. One of the more vocal and liberal Senators in DC, Biden is easily seen as a part of that establishment politics that Obama campaigned against. This contradiction on a key issue for Obama creates the impression on conflict with Obama’s message, and created doubt in the undecided voters.

Michelle Obama - The strongest and most vocal supporter of Obama is his wife, Michelle Obama. Unfortunately, her early strength in front of the camera created a lot of doubt, concern, and even fear in some of the general public. This initial impression was followed up with her highly criticized comment of being “proud of her country for the first time in her adult life,” implying that there was nothing about our country that she liked before hand. As a result, she was removed from the media attention while the campaign worked on reinventing her image, sending her on a circuit of the morning talk shows to reintroduce herself. Tonight will be her first major speech to the public as a whole to reintroduce her husband and their family, and this has the media covering her prime time speech with a microscope; picking apart every word she says and her body language.

Time - Obama’s message of Hope and Change filled the void in many people who felt that the country has lost its way, people who were down on their luck, and disenfranchised Democrats who still harbored ill will following the loss of the 2000 election. Tied with a fantastic ability to speak in front of a large crowd, Obama was able to form a strong base around him that was unbreakable. If the primaries started a few months later, the momentum of the message of Hope and Change would carry him through November. However, the shine of the message started to fade leading into the summer, highlighted by a major address in Germany. This caused some followers and many on the fence to step back and reexamine what Obama is bringing to the ballot, leading to a closer look at his record and his stances on the issues. While being able to explain away some of his position changes over the two year campaign (such as universal health care), changes in stances on wiretapping and off-shore drilling has caused soft supporters to break away as well as stoked heavy criticism by members on the far left.

This is just a sampling of what lies before Obama and the Democratic Party. If they can address most of these issues, Obama stands a good chance of not only putting the White House back in the hands of the Democrats, put also pair it with a Democratically-controlled Congress. With special appearances by the ailing Ted Kennedy, and an outdoor address by Obama on Thursday during prime time media coverage, Obama has a lot of positives in his favor in 2008. Tonight starts the general election, and with the polls currently tied between Obama and McCain, it is important that the negatives don’t overshadow the positives, possibly costing him and election that is his to lose.

Related articles:
The Politico -  “Rendell: Obama coverage was embarrassing”
Breitbart - “Obama dilemma as celebrities descend on Denver”
Chessnoid - “Democrats have buyer’s remorse on Obama”
The Washington Post - “Clinton Advisers Skipping Obama Speech”
NY Daily News - “John Edwards calling former staffers asking for forgiveness”
International Herald Tribune - “Clinton delegates back Obama, but poll shows concern”
God-o-Meter - “McCain’s Greatest Moral Failure Pays Off”
Politicususa - “Clinton and Obama Shoot Down Rumors of Convention Disunity”
California Conservative - “This is The Biden Bounce?”
Say Anything - “Hope For Change: Obama’s VP Has Served Longer In Washington Than Any Other VP Candidate Ever”
My Way News - “Dems seek peace in party as Obama convention opens”
The Politico - “Tensions boil between Obama-Clinton camps”
Vulcan’s Hammer - “The tide of Liberalism and America”

Joe Biden, or as we call him “Mr. Foreign Relations,” fills in one of the key areas where Obama is weak - Foreign Relations. This helps minimize the impact that McCain has on the public relations debate, where most of the current rise in polls the past few weeks has been coming from for McCain. But remember, Biden called for breaking up Iraq into three federated states and was against the surge, so McCain might be able to incorporate the success of the surge as a decent counter-argument against Biden’s foreign policy views. Additionally, Biden voted for re-entering Iraq in 2003. Obama has campaigned on how he had the foresight to be against the war, so this will be another potential advertisement point for the McCain camp. Now McCain needs to pick someone who can handle the verbal skills of Biden, which means that it will probably be Mitt Romney.

Related articles:
Al Jazeera - “Obama ‘picks running mate’”
The Daily Voice - “The Secret is Out”
Yahoo News - “Official:  Obama picks Biden for Veep”
Breitbart - “Biden speaks - and speaks - his own mind”
U.S. Senate - “U.S. Senate Roll Call vote on the Joint Resolution 114″
Chicago Tribune - “Biden:  Iraq surge success a ‘fantasy’”
Associated Press - “Analysis: Biden pick shows lack of confidence”
Tom Rants - “The Vice-Presidential Picks”
First Door on the Left - “Only Barack knows for sure”
Washington Interns Gone Bad - “Blue Delaware”
Tom Rants - “The Message is Here”
Republican Ranting - “Rasmussen Poll: Joe Biden Helps Obama as Much as He Hurts Him”
Polisicks - “This could not be better.”
Killer Buffalo - “For Obama, Biden is a Change in Focus”
Globally Rational - “What does Biden tell us?”
Disillusioned Words - “Obama Made the Best Possible Choice for a Running Mate”

 NOTE:  This article has been revised as of 10:12pm on 8/22/2008 due to an analytical error.

Based on current polls, there isn’t much change in 2008 from 2004.  The three states that change are Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico; all three switching in favor for Obama.  Now, if you thought Florida was bad in the 2000 elections, you haven’t seen anything yet.  You see, in the map above, the electoral vote counts for both Obama and McCain is 269, or in other words, it is a tie.  That’s right, folks - a tie.

In the case of a tie (which means no one reached 270 electoral votes), the election moves to Congress where the House of Representatives picks the President while the Senate picks the Vice President.   Each state will be given one vote, so the state delegations would have to come to some sort of conclusion as to how the state will cast their vote.  If the House does not choose a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice President will serve as acting President until a President is chosen by the House.

Just for a trial, let’s look at how the states would vote for President and Vice President based upon the party majority of their Representatives and Senators.  (See individual state data at the end of the article.)

With the way the House currently stands, Obama would win 27 states, McCain would win 21, and 2 states are tied.  So, you would have President Obama accepting the oath of office assuming the states voted among the majority of the Representatives.  (NOTE:  The changes to the article follows.)  The Vice President race, however, might result in a Republican taking the oath due to the equal partisan split in the Senate.  There are 49 Republican Senators and 49 Democratic Senators.  With 2 Independent Senators (one leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican), it would be more likely that a Vice President (rather than President) not being chosen on Inauguration day.

Alabama:
House - 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Alaska:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Arizona:
House - 4 Republicans, 4 Democrats (tie)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Arkansas:
House - 1 Republican, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

California:
House - 19 Republicans, 34 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Colorado:
House - 3 Republicans, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Connecticut:
House - 1 Republican, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Democrat, 1 Independent

Delaware:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Florida:
House - 16 Republicans, 9 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Georgia:
House - 7 Republicans, 6 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Hawaii:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Idaho:
House - 2 Republicans (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Illinois:
House - 8 Republicans, 11 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Indiana:
House - 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Iowa:
House - 2 Republicans, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Kansas:
House - 2 Republicans, 2 Democrats (tie)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Kentucky:
House - 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Louisiana:
House - 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Maine:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Maryland:
House - 2 Republicans, 6 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Massachusetts:
House - 10 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Michigan:
House - 9 Republicans, 6 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Minnesota:
House - 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Mississippi:
House - 1 Republican, 3 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Missouri:
House - 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Montana:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Nebraska:
House - 3 Republicans (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Nevada:
House - 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

New Hampshire:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

New Jersey:
House - 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

New Mexico:
House - 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

New York:
House - 6 Republicans, 23 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

North Carolina:
House - 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

North Dakota:
House - 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Ohio:
House - 11 Republicans, 6 Democrats, 1 vacant (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Oklahoma:
House - 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Oregon:
House - 1 Republican, 4 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Pennsylvania:
House - 8 Republicans, 11 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Rhode Island:
House - 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

South Carolina:
House - 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

South Dakota:
House - 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Tennessee:
House - 4 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Texas:
House - 19 Republicans, 13 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Utah:
House - 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Vermont:
House - 1 Democrat (Obama)
Senate - 1 Democrat, 1 Independent

Virginia:
House - 8 Republicans, 3 Democrats (McCain)
Senate - 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Washington:
House - 3 Republicans, 6 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

West Virginia:
House - 1 Republican, 2 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Wisconsin:
House - 3 Republicans, 5 Democrats (Obama)
Senate - 2 Democrats

Wyoming:
House - 1 Republican (McCain)
Senate - 2 Republicans

Two of John McCain’s campaign offices have received threatening letters containing white powder.  The offices in Denver and New Hampshire have been evacuated and HAZMAT teams have been sent in to test the substance.  There are no reports on any of the office workers falling ill as a result of the powder.

Related articles:
CNN - “Powder, threatening letter sent to McCain office”
FOX News - “Two McCain Offices Receive Envelopes with white powder, threat”
Reuters - “McCain Colo. office evacuated after letter threat”
Denver Post - “McCain’s Centennial HQ evacuated for white powder”
Washington Post - “McCain’s Denver Headquarters Evacuated”
First Door on the Left - “Powder at McCan offices”

According to the National Institute of Health:

A cerebral aneurysm (also known as an intracranial or intracerebral aneurysm) is a weak or thin spot on a blood vessel in the brain that balloons out and fills with blood. The bulging aneurysm can put pressure on a nerve or surrounding brain tissue. It may also leak or rupture, spilling blood into the surrounding tissue (called a hemorrhage). Some cerebral aneurysms, particularly those that are very small, do not bleed or cause other problems. Cerebral aneurysms can occur anywhere in the brain, but most are located along a loop of arteries that run between the underside of the brain and the base of the skull.

Most cerebral aneurysms are congenital, resulting from an inborn abnormality in an artery wall. Cerebral aneurysms are also more common in people with certain genetic diseases, such as connective tissue disorders and polycystic kidney disease, and certain circulatory disorders, such as arteriovenous malformations.

Other causes include trauma or injury to the head, high blood pressure, infection, tumors, atherosclerosis (a blood vessel disease in which fats build up on the inside of artery walls) and other diseases of the vascular system, cigarette smoking, and drug abuse. Some investigators have speculated that oral contraceptives may increase the risk of developing aneurysms.

Aneurysms that result from an infection in the arterial wall are called mycotic aneurysms. Cancer-related aneurysms are often associated with primary or metastatic tumors of the head and neck. Drug abuse, particularly the habitual use of cocaine, can inflame blood vessels and lead to the development of brain aneurysms.

We do not currently have any information detailing how the aneurysm developed at this time, and I’m not sure if the details will be released to the public. At this time, I would like to extend our condolences to her family during this terrible time.

Related articles:
National Institute of Health - “Cerebral Aneurysm Fact Sheet”
Yahoo News - “US Rep. Tubbs Jones of Ohio dies after hemorrhage”
Reuters - “Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones dies of aneurysm”
CNN - “Ohio Rep. Tubbs Jones dies after aneursym”
First Door on the Left - “Ohio Congresswoman dies”

For Vacation Bible School (VBS) at church, I was helping the kids put on a couple plays during the week to share the lesson of the day in a format that the kids in attendance might understand. In a similar way, Barack Obama and John McCain joined with Rick Warren at the Saddleback Church in order to share their views on faith and morals to a wider audience. I have yet to finish watching the event, but from what I’ve seen, Warren did a wonderful job of providing the most civil “examination” of the candidates that I recall ever seeing in years. Asking both candidates the same questions and providing them time to answer them gave the viewers more information on the candidates than was obtained through the primary debates and probably in the upcoming general election debates. (If I have time this week, I will do a side-by-side comparison of the answers by Obama and McCain.)

Between trips from Raleigh, NC, Virginia Beach, VA, and Long Island, NY I noticed how gas prices drop the further South I drove. Also, I’ve noticed over the past month, gas prices in my backyard have dropped from $4.09 to $3.39 (or 70 cents). This drop is due to many factors, including the markets responding to Bush lifting the executive ban on offshore drilling, Republicans holding a recess protest against the Democratic leadership for refusing to allow debates on offshore drilling and domestic exploration, a drop in demand due to the spike in gas prices leading up to the Summer driving period, the strengthening US dollar, and more. Unfortunately, we risk the potential of entering our comfort zone when it comes to gas prices that me might fail to push Congress to enter the 21st century and work with our companies to increase domestic oil production as well as to speed our transition to renewable sources of energy.

On my trip back from New York this past weekend, I spent two hours sitting in traffic at toll booths waiting for a chance to make it to the window to pay my toll and continue on with my journey. The tolling stations not being fully manned during peak traveling time on the weekend caused these days. As one of my coworkers asked, “Why didn’t you use the FastPass system,” I had to point out that traffic was backed up over a mile at two of the tollbooths, making the FastPass option meaningless, as I would not have gotten to the window any faster. This failure at planning by the operators of the tollbooths equal the failure by the Republicans and Democrats over their props they are passing out to reporters and supporters over the energy debate. The Republicans handed out tire gauges labeled as “Obama Energy Plan.” The Democrats are now handing out stress balls shaped as oil drums labeled as “ExxonMcCain ‘08.” These silly gimmicks distract the attention from the real debate. (Also, I am not sure if the Democrats use of the “Exxon” logo isn’t going to result in some sort of lawsuit against the party.)

Just as a reminder, we are now less than 90 days from Election Day. Next week is the Democratic National conventions with the Republicans holding theirs the week after that. Both candidates are expected to announce their Vice Presidential picks before their conventions, so we should have plenty of campaign stories to cover over the next three weeks. Stay tuned!

Looking to interrupt the oil economy of Georgia while hoping to splinter small regions into autonomous bodies (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), Russia has started sending in ground forces, taking over military installations and destroying airfields. In the process of the air and ground assaults, over 2000 Georgians have been reported as being killed, along with numerous others being injured. While denying the impressions of the assault, it is viewed by outside parties that Russia intents to siege the Capital of Georgia to topple the government and the pro-Western President Saakashvili.

The international community was quick to condemn the actions of Russia or call for a cessation of aggression. While at the Olympics, President Bush has been in talks with Putin, including a famous scene caught on video during the opening ceremonies where the President pulled Putin aside. The Presidential candidates have also entered the fray, with McCain taking a hard stance against the Russian action, with Obama quickly following his lead after a softer stance over the weekend. The Security Council of the United Nations have been in discussions for the past five days, thought it is unlikely that any action being approved of due to Russia’s permanent veto power.

Where will this lead to in the next week? If the analysts are correct, we can see Russian forces continue to push through Georgia until the government caves in to their demands. It is difficult to see Russia simply pursue this action just to withdraw without any sort of change of status either in Georgia’s government or borders. Hopefully some sort of pressure is applied to Russia short of third-party military engagement in order to protect the sovereignty of Georgia, and Russia is held financially responsible for repairing the damage they have caused.

Related articles:
The Seattle Times - “Inevitable Russia-Georgia war brewed for years”
The Times - “Another battle in the 1,000-year Russia-Georgia grudge match”
The Chicago Tribune - “McCain to voters: Russia-Georgia matters”
Reuters - “Bush: Russian response to Georgia ‘disproportionate’”
Bloomberg - “President Bush Condemns Russian Escalation in Georgia”
Voice of America News - “US Backs EU, OSCE Mediation in Georgia Crisis”
Xinhua News - “McCain takes hard stance towards Russia”
Bloomberg - “Russian Troops Launch Ground Offensive in Georgia”
CNN - “Obama moves closer to McCain on Russia stance”
Tom Rants - “Russia and the lessons of history”
The Spitting Vessel - “The Gaffe in Georgia’s Gamble”
The Law of Politics - “Russia flirting with Cold War 2″
Republican Ranting - “Russia is Overstepping It’s Bounds by Invading Georgia”
MLoger - “Georgia’s Right to Self Determination, What You Really Need to Know”
Kayloo - “My Strategy On Russia”
Globally Rational - “The International Poli(tical)ce Force… are we siding with Georgia or blindly opposing Russia?”
Disillusioned Words - “I’m Sorry to Say that Georgia Has Learned a Tough Lesson.  (It Seems Obama May Have Too)”
The BoBo Files - “From Russia with Love!”

In recent weeks, MILF has taken hold of small towns such as Tipo Tipo, occupying key government buildings to use as headquarters and to store supplies in advance of the Filipino army. These new strongholds and threats of support by another militant faction known as the New People’s Army (NPA) have prompted the Filipino government to consider a resolution to allow Shariah law to be the law of the land over a few of the islands, in essence creating a new safe-haven similar to the provided by the Taliban in Afghanistan before US liberation in 2001.

The Philippines is one of America’s closest allies, a relationship that is rooted in the Liberation, territorial control, and eventual independence following World War II. To allow the creation of a possible terrorist stronghold to be established in such a close ally as the Philippines would be a big setback for our international push to control and end terrorism around the globe. While the Arroyo government might go ahead with this plan, the hope is that she will decide against “splitting up” the nation through religious segregation.

Related articles:
The Wall Street Journal - “Gloria’s Terror Gambit”
Yahoo News - “Filipino troops press assault on Muslim rebels”
Mike in Manila (at large) - “Philippines War on Terror: Local boots + US Support leading to victories”
Philippine Star - “AFP-MILF clashes escalates in Cotabato”
USA Today - “In Philippines, U.S. making progress in war on terror”