The residents of Virginia went to the polls today to pick the person to represent the Democratic Party to challenge Republican nominee Bob McDonnell. The three competitors are Terry McAuliffe, Creigh Deeds, and Brian Moran. In what is being viewed as a reflection of the view of the Obama Administration, both of the two dominating parties are hoping to score big to justify their stance on national politics.

If you have followed my comments on the CNN’s boards over the year, you will know that I have viewed Deeds as the Democrats best chance to defeat McDonnell. If you remember back to the 2005 Virginia State elections, McDonnell defeated Deeds by just 360 votes, or 1.9% of the total votes cast in the Attorney Generals race. This investment into statewide name recognition, especially in the head-to-head race against McDonnell, would be difficult for Moran or McAuliffe to counter.

Additionally, Moran and McAuliffe have other issues facing them. While Brian Moran is a well-known figure Northern Virginia, so is his outspoken brother Jim Moran. Jim has a habit of making verbal gaffes, including insults towards the Jewish community and endorsing earmarks (with the use of swear words in the process). On the other hand, McAuliffe is seen as a political outsider, even though he lives in Northern Virginia. After years of being involved with Democratic National Committee, and working with the Clinton’s before that, some fear that he is trying to bring beltway politics down to Richmond.

UPDATE: The Associated Press is currently projecting Deeds as the winner, with 49.88% of the votes currently counted. McAuliffe has 26.16% of the votes, and Moran has 23.95%. In what is already viewed as the rematch of 2005, Virginia is possibly facing another close election.

Related articles:
Richmond Times-Dispatch – “Deeds is Democratic nominee for governor”
WTVR TV – “Campaign 2009: Polls Now Open”
The Washington Post – “Morning Fix: Virginia Governor’s Race Viewer’s Guide”

Reflecting back on last weeks presentation by the Democratic Party, let’s take a look how they handled the issues I listed.

Hillary Clinton – What was probably the best political speech of her career, she highlighted the race between her and Obama during the primaries, and how she placed 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling for women. What was missing from her speech was much about Obama himself or how he would be best qualified for the Presidency. It might have been a means to establish herself for 2012 in the off chance that Obama loses, or maybe it was a way to retain the confidence in some of her supporters that are weary of endorsing Obama. However, the speech itself did no harm, and it rallied the base, so on this point, the DNC survived a potential catastrophe.

Hillary’s delegates – A lot of jockeying was done before the roll call vote was done to ensure that the delegates were declared and that at no time did Hillary have the lead. Some states were required to cast their delegates as the people voted, while other states allowed the delegates to cast all their votes for the primary winner. Doing the roll call alphabetically, the initial states pledged delegates for both candidates, but keeping Obama ahead at all times. When it came to states like California, where Clinton carried the state by 52%, the state would yield to the next state to cast their delegates at a later point. After Illinois put the delegate totals for Obama over the half-way point, Nancy Pelosi asked if anyone disapproved of ending the roll call and quickly gaveled the roll call over before anyone had a chance to object. This was the best way they could avoid any contention on the floor by rouge Hillary supporters.

Bill Clinton – In my view, this was the best speech of the convention. Leading up to his speech, there were concerns that Clinton would stray from the provided topic and may not even give a ringing endorsement of Obama. Yes, Clinton did stray, but did so to highlight the importance of the party and as a segway into why Obama should champion the successes of the past into the next four years. If there truly was a concern about party unity, Clinton healed the rift.

John Edwards – This comment here represents more than what was mentioned by the media outlets and at the convention itself. The story line of his infidelity was kept out of the headlines and primetime during the convention as a way to avoid distractions to the message.

Joe Biden – Not that I expected there to be any coverage on this at the convention itself, the media outlets really didn’t highlight how Biden is in a position to endorse the views that Obama had on the war and management of Iraq. Other than Biden stating how it is time to bring the troops home, not much was stated on this topic, limiting the potential media news on what Biden stated just months earlier.

Michelle Obama – Her speech on the opening night did a good job in reintroducing herself and the family to America. It wasn’t a grand speech, nor did it really carry anything of major substance, but it solidified Obama as a family man. It was capped off when his two young daughters came on to the stage to have a teleconference with their father who was in Kansas at the time.

Time – The enemy of time isn’t something that could be beaten by a convention, but the imagery of his prime time speech at the colossal outdoor venue did a lot to help pull back some wayward supporters. As of today, he is finally seeing his post convention ‘bounce,’ putting him up anywhere from 5 to 8 percentage votes.

Overall, the convention was a success. No major gaffes occurred, and strong presentations by the Clintons helped to ensure there wasn’t a major divide within the party just months before the election. The question will be if his convention and ‘bounce’ will be enough to quell any successes from the Republican convention. “Time” can only tell.

Tonight launches the main portion of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO, essentially starting the general election campaign. This week is the Democrats turn to establish their platform for the next few months while painting their nominee is the best light as possible to make a good impression on the general public. These events have become carefully orchestrated to avoid potential floor battles or prime time speeches that create controversy for the party. With each race, a party faces a few issues leading into the Conventions, and this one is no different. Here is a quick look at some of the problems the Democratic Party and the Obama Campaign have to work around heading into tonight’s Convention.

Hillary Clinton – This is probably the largest of the “two-headed” issue for the Obama Campaign this week. Hillary Clinton was Obama’s main challenger during the Primary process, staying match-step with him with states won and delegates awarded for five months of the campaign. Locking up over 18 Million votes across the country, she carries a lot of weight in this year’s election, and due to that influence comes committed supporters. A significant proportion of her supporters are not happy, feeling that they had the election stolen from Hillary with the states of Florida and Michigan not being counted in the delegate totals, small states that Obama carried providing more delegates than some of the larger states that Hillary carried, and the sense that gender was sidelined by race. However, the largest swipe was the fact that Hillary was not considered for the Vice Presidential position by Obama, instead choosing Joe Biden for the job.

Hillary’s delegates – In addition to the protestors outside the Convention, Obama (and Hillary) have to worry about delegates on the Convention floor. In order to maintain stability and unity, “whip teams” are deployed among the delegates to ensure no protests are started to distract from the message of the person on the stage. Additionally, a roll call vote will be done during the Convention as an agreement with Party members to ensure that Hillary receives fair treatment, hoping to pacify the Hillary supporters. Some states require delegates to vote in the manner that they were selected, meaning that some are required to vote for Hillary even though she has released her delegates to Obama. Additionally, some delegates and superdelegates have stated publicly that they will vote for Hillary regardless. A high vote total for Hillary might show that there is not unity within the party yet, possibly weakening Obama’s message for the week.

Bill Clinton – The last two-term Democratic President has not been a strong supporter of Obama following the end of the Primary process. He has felt that he was targeted by the Obama camp, accused the camp of playing the race card against the Hillary campaign and himself, and ignored by the Obama camp leading into the Convention this week. When he was informed of his scheduled night and time to make a presentation at the Convention, he was given a topic (Securing America’s Future) to speak on. Unfortunately, this is not the topic that he wanted to speak on, referencing his strong record on the economy and Democratic Party unity and ideals. This has reinforced his reason for not using his political power to help secure a victory for Obama leading into November.

John Edwards – What can only be seen as a sigh of relief that the news didn’t break a week or two later, the Democratic Party is suffering from the shocking announcement that the 2004 Vice Presidential nominee and the third-place delegate winner of the 2008 primary committed adultery while on the campaign trail. What makes it worse is the fact that his wife is suffering from cancer. With rumors that he might have also fathered a child in this relationship, the Democratic Party had to scramble to marginalize Edwards in order to not lose too much of the ‘family values’ influence they have gained over the past two years following some key Republican scandals. Once courted by both Hillary and Obama, Edwards was the focus of the media for a month while the two leading candidates held key private meetings with the one-term Senator with win his support and the support of his followers. This also hurt the chance of the Party surrogates of using McCain’s first marriage against him without Edwards popping up in the discussion. Combine this with the strong core support McCain received following his public statement during the Saddleback forum just a few weeks ago, taking full blame for the failure of his first marriage, the “chip” has all but been removed from the table.

Joe Biden – While probably the safest pick Obama could make to fill in some key gaping holes in his campaign platform, Biden does not come without risks. For starters, Obama won a lot of key support during the Primaries on the platform that he had the foresight to oppose the land battle with Iraq in 2003. Biden, one of his primary challengers, not only voted for the war but also strongly defended the reason to do so back in 2002. Another point of contention with one of Obama’s key platform points is the need of change from politics as usual. Biden has been a Senator for 35 years, or almost the entire life of Obama. One of the more vocal and liberal Senators in DC, Biden is easily seen as a part of that establishment politics that Obama campaigned against. This contradiction on a key issue for Obama creates the impression on conflict with Obama’s message, and created doubt in the undecided voters.

Michelle Obama – The strongest and most vocal supporter of Obama is his wife, Michelle Obama. Unfortunately, her early strength in front of the camera created a lot of doubt, concern, and even fear in some of the general public. This initial impression was followed up with her highly criticized comment of being “proud of her country for the first time in her adult life,” implying that there was nothing about our country that she liked before hand. As a result, she was removed from the media attention while the campaign worked on reinventing her image, sending her on a circuit of the morning talk shows to reintroduce herself. Tonight will be her first major speech to the public as a whole to reintroduce her husband and their family, and this has the media covering her prime time speech with a microscope; picking apart every word she says and her body language.

Time – Obama’s message of Hope and Change filled the void in many people who felt that the country has lost its way, people who were down on their luck, and disenfranchised Democrats who still harbored ill will following the loss of the 2000 election. Tied with a fantastic ability to speak in front of a large crowd, Obama was able to form a strong base around him that was unbreakable. If the primaries started a few months later, the momentum of the message of Hope and Change would carry him through November. However, the shine of the message started to fade leading into the summer, highlighted by a major address in Germany. This caused some followers and many on the fence to step back and reexamine what Obama is bringing to the ballot, leading to a closer look at his record and his stances on the issues. While being able to explain away some of his position changes over the two year campaign (such as universal health care), changes in stances on wiretapping and off-shore drilling has caused soft supporters to break away as well as stoked heavy criticism by members on the far left.

This is just a sampling of what lies before Obama and the Democratic Party. If they can address most of these issues, Obama stands a good chance of not only putting the White House back in the hands of the Democrats, put also pair it with a Democratically-controlled Congress. With special appearances by the ailing Ted Kennedy, and an outdoor address by Obama on Thursday during prime time media coverage, Obama has a lot of positives in his favor in 2008. Tonight starts the general election, and with the polls currently tied between Obama and McCain, it is important that the negatives don’t overshadow the positives, possibly costing him and election that is his to lose.

Related articles:
The Politico -  “Rendell: Obama coverage was embarrassing”
Breitbart - “Obama dilemma as celebrities descend on Denver”
Chessnoid – “Democrats have buyer’s remorse on Obama”
The Washington Post – “Clinton Advisers Skipping Obama Speech”
NY Daily News – “John Edwards calling former staffers asking for forgiveness”
International Herald Tribune – “Clinton delegates back Obama, but poll shows concern”
God-o-Meter – “McCain’s Greatest Moral Failure Pays Off”
Politicususa – “Clinton and Obama Shoot Down Rumors of Convention Disunity”
California Conservative – “This is The Biden Bounce?”
Say Anything – “Hope For Change: Obama’s VP Has Served Longer In Washington Than Any Other VP Candidate Ever”
My Way News – “Dems seek peace in party as Obama convention opens”
The Politico – “Tensions boil between Obama-Clinton camps”
Vulcan’s Hammer – “The tide of Liberalism and America”

By eWorldVu

You have to question the wisdom of any political party that establishes obscure rules in which to elect candidates for its Presidential nomination. There appears to have been no planning, vision, or foresight in the establishment of the Democratic Party’s convention rules.

The only reasoning that I have heard to date concerning the Democratic Party’s absurd nomination rules is that the party was not expected to have a primary election that would be this close. Actually that reasoning does make more sense than you might think. Obviously, the Democrats’ convention rules were made to have a coronation party and not to manage a close convention election process.

So it is very possible that, (based on the rules in place or lack of same), the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in 2008 may in fact steal the nomination during the summer. The August Democratic convention will not be brokered. The reality is it will either produce an appropriate elected winner or, because of its hazy, obscure, and absurd rules, provide a thief and as a result a victim.

Assuming the election continues to move forward on its current path and because of the rule of assigning delegates according to the proportionate vote in a state, Barack Obama should have around 1800 delegates at the end of the primary season. At the 1800 pledged delegate mark, he will still be short about two hundred and twenty five delegates in order to stake claim to the Democratic Party Presidential nomination.

However, Obama will have won more primaries and caucuses (he has already won 23 out of 35) and have the most pledged delegates. He should be the winner of the Democratic popular vote cast nationally. Indeed, in any truly democratic election, by every measure, he would then be declared the winner. However, according to the rules of this strange election process, he would be still over 200 delegates short of victory prior to the convention.

While just short of the delegates needed for victory, it would still be possible for Barack Obama to lose an election that by every measure of democratic process, he should have already won. How could it happen? Here are the three ways for Hillary Clinton to steal the Democratic party nomination in the 2008 Presidential election from Barack Obama.

1. Super Delegates: There are 795 delegates going to the convention that can vote for either candidate. They can even endorse a candidate and then change their mind. These are Democratic party members and insiders. It is sure a great time to be a Democratic super delegate. Can’t you just hear the bidding for their delegate vote increasing by the day? The longer the endorsement holdout, the better the potential reward. They can just hear that contribution to their reelection fund now. How about an ambassadorship or a cushy job in the Beltway? The demographic of these super delegates is overwhelmingly middle-aged white men.

2. Unseated Delegates from Florida And Michigan: These two states moved their primary date forward on the election calendar. All the Democratic candidates signed a pledge that they would not campaign in these states. The penalty for breaking the Democratic party rules was that the 366 delegates from these two states would not be counted or seated at the convention. Hillary Clinton won the vote in both uncontested states.

Irrespective of the rules, the Hillary Clinton campaign is already suggesting that the Democratic Party seat these poor disenfranchised delegates from the states of Michigan and Florida. In fact, in Michigan, in their haste to move up their primary election date, they happened to forget to include Barack Obama’s name on the primary election ballot. How, and if, these delegates are seated and who they vote for may become a battle at the convention indeed.

3. Pledged Delegates Assigned from State Primary and Caucus Victories: Incredibly, pledged delegates are not required to vote for any candidate at the Democratic convention. This means that if a candidate wins a primary election or caucus in the Democratic party and the delegate is pledged to the candidate to represent victory, the delegate is not required to have to honor the pledge. The pledged delegate is allowed to overrule the will of the voters and the delegate can vote for any candidate even on the first convention ballot. This means that every delegate at the convention can vote for any candidate.

So it can clearly be seen how the Presidential nomination at the Democratic convention can be stolen. It can come in any combination of the ways heretofore described. The truth is that, according to the Democratic Party convention rules, every delegate at the convention is a possible delegate for a candidate’s opponent, even on the first ballot, regardless of the outcome of each of the primary state elections. Therefore no delegate should be considered safe until they actually vote at the convention.

These are the three ways to steal the Democratic party nomination. If your name is Barack Obama and you have won the most pledged delegates, state election primary victories, caucus victories, and national Democratic primary vote, it may seem impossible to leave the Democratic convention without the nomination. The sad reality is that because of the absurd and obscure Democratic Party convention rules, impossible it certainly is not.

Source:  eWorldVu – Articles on News, Opinion & World Events

President George Bush has declared her the eventual Democratic Party nominee in the 2008 Presidential Election. The public opinion polls in New Hampshire have her leading the rest of the Democratic Party field by twenty percentage points in the State. She has not experienced any further fallout from her campaign’s strange involvement with Norman Hsu. She still leads all Democrats nationwide by eighteen points according to the latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll.

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